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Diabetes Care, Vol 15, Issue 7 815-819, Copyright © 1992 by American Diabetes Association
Onset of NIDDM occurs at least 4-7 yr before clinical diagnosis
MI Harris, R Klein, TA Welborn and MW Knuiman
National Diabetes Data Group, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Bethesda, Maryland 20892.
OBJECTIVE--To investigate duration of the period between diabetes onset and
its clinical diagnosis. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS--Two population-based
groups of white patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes (NIDDM) in the
United States and Australia were studied. Prevalence of retinopathy and
duration of diabetes subsequent to clinical diagnosis were determined for
all subjects. Weighted linear regression was used to examine the
relationship between diabetes duration and prevalence of retinopathy.
RESULTS--Prevalence of retinopathy at clinical diagnosis of diabetes was
estimated to be 20.8% in the U.S. and 9.9% in Australia and increased
linearly with longer duration of diabetes. By extrapolating this linear
relationship to the time when retinopathy prevalence was estimated to be
zero, onset of detectable retinopathy was calculated to have occurred
approximately 4-7 yr before diagnosis of NIDDM. Because other data indicate
that diabetes may be present for 5 yr before retinopathy becomes evident,
onset of NIDDM may occur 9-12 yr before its clinical diagnosis.
CONCLUSIONS--These findings suggest that undiagnosed NIDDM is not a benign
condition. Clinically significant morbidity is present at diagnosis and for
years before diagnosis. During this preclinical period, treatment is not
being offered for diabetes or its specific complications, despite the fact
that reduction in hyperglycemia, hypertension, and cardiovascular risk
factors is believed to benefit patients. Imprecise dating of diabetes onset
also obscures investigations of the etiology of NIDDM and studies of the
nature and importance of risk factors for diabetes complications.

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