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Diabetes Care, Vol 17, Issue 2 120-125, Copyright © 1994 by American Diabetes Association
The predictive value of microalbuminuria in IDDM. A five-year follow-up study
T Almdal, K Norgaard, B Feldt-Rasmussen and T Deckert
Steno Diabetes Center, Gentofte, Denmark.
OBJECTIVE--To investigate the predictive value of microalbuminuria and the
annual increase of albumin excretion as risk factors for diabetic
nephropathy. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS--A 5-year follow-up of patients
with microalbuminuria (urinary albumin excretion [UAE] = 30-299 mg/24 h)
and matched patients with normoalbuminuria (UAE < 30 mg/24 h). The
initial classification was based on one single 24-h urine collection. The
annual increase in UAE was calculated by linear regression analysis of
log-transformed UAE on time. This study was conducted at the outpatient
clinic of the Steno Diabetes Center. The study subjects included 118
insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) patients between 18 and 50 years
of age with microalbuminuria and 112 matched control patients with normal
UAE with an age at diabetes onset of < 31 years. The main outcome
measures were UAE, annual change in UAE rate (percentage per year), and the
prevalence of retinopathy. RESULTS--After 5 years, 39 (33%, 24-42 CI [95%
confidence interval]) patients with microalbuminuria had normoalbuminuria,
57 (48%, 38-57 CI) still had microalbuminuria, and 22 (19%, 12-27 CI) had
developed diabetic nephropathy. Among the 112 patients with
normoalbuminuria in 1985, 9 (8%, 4-15 CI) had developed microalbuminuria,
and 2 (2%, 0-6 CI) had developed diabetic nephropathy. Of the 79 patients
with persistent albuminuria, only 36 (46%, 34-57 CI) were progressors with
a rate of progression of > 5%/year. Progressors had significantly higher
HbAlc, higher mean blood pressure, and a higher incidence of proliferative
retinopathy compared with nonprogressors. Multiple regression analysis only
identified mean HbAlc as an independent predictor of the rate of
progression. Smoking was significantly more prevalent in patients with
persistent albuminuria. CONCLUSIONS--Microalbuminuria is a predictor of
progression to diabetic nephropathy; however, not as strong as suggested
previously. Calculation of the annual increase in UAE seems to be a more
specific method of identifying patients who will develop diabetic
nephropathy.

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Copyright © 1994 by the American Diabetes Association.
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