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Increased Risk of Childhood Type 1 Diabetes in Children Born After 1985

From the Steno Diabetes Centre, Gentofte, Denmark

OBJECTIVE—The incidence rate of childhood type 1 diabetes is thought to be increasing; however, Danish studies have not confirmed this. Using a national diabetes register initiated in 1996 and two previous regional incidence studies, we studied the age-specific incidence of type 1 diabetes over 30 years. Here, we describe the incidence rates of type 1 diabetes in Danish children from 1996 to 2000 and evaluate trends in age-specific incidence rates from 1970 to 2000.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—A nationwide registration of all newly diagnosed cases of type 1 diabetes among children under the age of 15 years was established in Denmark in 1996. Incidence rates of type 1 diabetes in Denmark were obtained from this register. Age-specific incidence rates were compared with data collected from 1970 to 1976 and from 1980 to 1984, both population-based studies using existing national routine registration of hospitalizations within the survey areas. Population data were obtained from Statistics Denmark.

RESULTS—During the study period, 1,421 Danish children developed type 1 diabetes before the age of 15 years. The incidence rates by age-groups were: 12.7, 19.4, and 26.3 for the 0–4, 5–9, and 10–14 years age-groups, respectively, and 19.5 for the 0–14 years age-group per 100,000 in the period 1996–2000. An age-period-cohort analysis showed a modest drift effect (yearly increase) of 1.2% (0.7–1.8) from 1970 to 2000, and a significant birth cohort effect with an increased risk for children born after 1985 was observed.

CONCLUSIONS—The incidence rate of type 1 diabetes is rising in children living in Denmark. The steep increase in the youngest age-group was explained by the increased risk for cohorts born at the beginning of the 1980s.

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