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Diabetes Care 26:3153-3159, 2003
© 2003 by the American Diabetes Association, Inc.

Metabolic Syndrome/Insulin Resistance Syndrome/Pre-Diabetes
Original Article

The Metabolic Syndrome as Predictor of Type 2 Diabetes

The San Antonio Heart Study

Carlos Lorenzo, MD, Mayor Okoloise, MS, Ken Williams, MS, Michael P. Stern, MD and Steven M. Haffner, MD

Division of Clinical Epidemiology, University of Texas Health Science Center, San Antonio, Texas

Address correspondence and reprint requests to Carlos Lorenzo, MD, Department of Medicine, The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, 7703 Floyd Curl Dr., San Antonio, TX 78284-7873. E-mail: lorenzo{at}uthscsa.edu

OBJECTIVE—The oral glucose tolerance test identifies high-risk subjects for diabetes, but it is costly and inconvenient. To find better predictors of type 2 diabetes, we evaluated two different definitions of the metabolic syndrome because insulin resistance, which is commonly associated with this clustering of metabolic factors, frequently precedes the onset of type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—We compared the ability of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) definition, a modified version of the 1999 World Health Organization (WHO) definition that excludes the 2-h glucose requirement, and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) to predict incident type 2 diabetes. In the San Antonio Heart Study, 1,734 participants completed a 7- to 8-year follow-up examination.

RESULTS—IGT and the NCEP definition had higher sensitivity than the modified WHO definition (51.9, 52.8, and 42.8%, respectively). IGT had a higher positive predictive value than the NCEP and modified WHO definitions (43.0, 30.8, and 30.4%, respectively). The combination of the IGT and NCEP definitions increased the sensitivity to 70.8% with an acceptable positive predictive value of 29.7%. Risk for incidence of type 2 diabetes using the NCEP definition was independent of other risk factors, including IGT and fasting insulin (odds ratio 3.30, 95% CI 2.27-4.80). The NCEP definition performed better with fasting glucose >=5.4 mmol/l (sensitivity 62.0% and positive predictive value 30.9%).

CONCLUSIONS—The metabolic syndrome predicts diabetes independently of other factors. However, the NCEP definition performs better than the modified 1999 WHO definition. Lowering the fasting glucose cutoff to 5.4 mmol/l improves the prediction of diabetes by the metabolic syndrome.

Abbreviations: IFG, impaired fasting glucose • IGT, impaired glucose tolerance • NCEP, National Cholesterol Education Program • OGTT, oral glucose tolerance test • ROC, receiver-operating characteristic • SAHS, San Antonio Heart Study • WHO, World Health Organization


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