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Diabetes Care 29:2575-2579, 2006
DOI: 10.2337/dc06-0749
© 2006 by the American Diabetes Association
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Clinical Care/Education/Nutrition
Original Article

Accuracy and Predictive Value of Classification Schemes for Ketosis-Prone Diabetes

Ashok Balasubramanyam, MD1,2, Gilberto Garza, MD1,2, Lucille Rodriguez, LVN1,2, Christiane S. Hampe, PHD3, Lakshmi Gaur, PHD3, Åke Lernmark, MD3 and Mario R. Maldonado, MD1

1 Translational Metabolism Unit, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
2 Endocrine Service, Ben Taub General Hospital, Houston, Texas
3 Robert H. Williams Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Address correspondence and reprint requests to Mario Maldonado, MD, Translational Metabolism Unit, Baylor College of Medicine, One Baylor Plaza, Room 520 N, Houston, TX 77030. E-mail: mrmaldonado{at}pol.net

OBJECTIVE—Ketosis-prone diabetes (KPD) is an emerging, heterogeneous syndrome. A sound classification scheme for KPD is essential to guide clinical practice and pathophysiologic studies. Four schemes have been used and are based on immunologic criteria, immunologic criteria and insulin requirement, BMI, and immunologic criteria and ß-cell function (Aß classification). The aim of the present study is to compare the four schemes for accuracy and predictive value in determining whether KPD patients have absent or preserved ß-cell function, which is a strong determinant of long-term insulin dependence and clinical phenotype.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—Consecutive patients (n = 294) presenting with diabetic ketoacidosis and followed for 12–60 months were classified according to all four schemes. They were evaluated longitudinally for ß-cell autoimmunity, clinical and biochemical features, ß-cell function, and insulin dependence. ß-Cell function was defined by peak plasma C-peptide response to glucagon ≥1.5 ng/ml. The accuracy of each scheme to predict absent or preserved ß-cell function after 12 months of follow-up was tested using multiple statistical analyses.

RESULTS—The "Aß" classification scheme was the most accurate overall, with a sensitivity and specificity of 99.4 and 95.9%, respectively, positive and negative likelihood ratios of 24.55 and 0.01, respectively, and an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.972.

CONCLUSIONS—The Aß scheme has the highest accuracy and predictive value in classifying KPD patients with regard to clinical outcomes and pathophysiologic subtypes.

Abbreviations: ADA, American Diabetes Association • AUC, area under the curve • DKA, diabetic ketoacidosis • GAD, glutamic acid decarboxylase • KPD, ketosis-prone diabetes • KDP-ID, KPD–insulin dependent • KDP-NID, KDP–noninsulin dependent • LR, likelihood ratio • PPV, positive predictive value • NPV, negative predictive value • ROC, receiver operating characteristic


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