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Deficiencies of Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Models for Type 1 Diabetes

¹ Department of Epidemiology, University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
² Department of Medicine, Division of General Internal Medicine, Section of Decision Sciences and Clinical Systems Modeling, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Address correspondence and reprint requests to Janice C. Zgibor, RPh, PhD, 3471 Fifth Ave., Lillian Kaufman Building, Suite 601.7, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. E-mail: edcjan{at}pitt.edu

OBJECTIVE—Cardiovascular risk prediction models are available for the general population (Framingham) and for type 2 diabetes (U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study [UKPDS] Risk Engine) but may not be appropriate in type 1 diabetes, as risk factors including younger age at diabetes onset and presence of diabetes complications are not considered. Therefore, our objective was to examine the accuracy of Framingham and UKPDS models for predicting coronary heart disease (CHD) in a type 1 diabetic cohort.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—Ten-year follow-up data from the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) study, a prospective cohort study of 658 subjects with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes diagnosed between 1950 and 1980 first seen in 1986–1988, were analyzed. EDC study data were used to calculate the 10-year probability of CHD (fatal CHD, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or Q-waves) applying to the Framingham and UKPDS equations.

RESULTS—Mean age at CHD onset was 39 years. When fatal/nonfatal myocardial infarction and CHD death were modeled, both the UKPDS and Framingham models showed significant lack of calibration (P < 0.0001) but moderate discrimination (0.76 UKPDS, 0.77 Framingham men, and 0.88 Framingham women). Both the UKPDS and Framingham models underestimated probability of events in highest risk deciles.

CONCLUSIONS—Currently available CHD models poorly predict events in type 1 diabetes. Future research should focus on determining the risk factors accounting for the lack of fit and developing prediction models specific to this high-risk group.

Abbreviations: CAD, coronary artery disease • CHD, coronary heart disease • ECG, electrocardiogram • EDC, Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications • UKPDS, U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study

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