HOME HELP FEEDBACK SUBSCRIPTIONS ARCHIVE SEARCH TABLE OF CONTENTS		QUICK SEARCH:   [advanced] Author: Keyword(s): Year:  Vol:  Page:

This Article Full Text Full Text (PDF) All Versions of this Article: dc06-1331v1 30/6/1544    most recent Purchase Article View Shopping Cart Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in PubMed Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Request Permissions Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Abdul-Ghani, M. A. Articles by Stern, M. Search for Related Content PubMed PubMed Citation Articles by Abdul-Ghani, M. A. Articles by Stern, M. Social Bookmarking                What's this?

What Is the Best Predictor of Future Type 2 Diabetes?

From the Divisions of Diabetes and Clinical Epidemiology, University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas

Address correspondence and reprint requests to Muhammad A. Abdul-Ghani, MD, PhD, Diabetes Division, University of Texas Health Science Center, 7703 Floyd Curl Dr., MS 7886, San Antonio, TX 78229. E-mail: albarado{at}uthscsa.edu

OBJECTIVE—We sought to assess insulin secretion/insulin resistance index in predicting the risk for future type 2 diabetes

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—A total of 1,551 nondiabetic subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study received an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with measurement of plasma glucose and insulin concentrations at 0, 30, 60, and 120 min at baseline and after 7–8 years of follow-up. Insulin secretion/insulin resistance index was calculated as the product of Matsuda index and I_0–30/G_0–30 or I_0–120/G_0–120. The discriminatory power of various prediction models for development of type 2 diabetes was tested with the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS—Insulin secretion/insulin resistance index (0- to 30- and 0- to 120-min time periods) had the greatest areas under the ROC curve (0.85 and 0.86, respectively), which were significantly greater than the 2-h plasma glucose concentration during the OGTT or the San Antonio Diabetes Prediction Model (SADPM) (P < 0.001 and P < 0.0001, respectively). A model based on the combination of the SADPM and a modified version of the insulin secretion/insulin resistance index or 1-h plasma glucose concentration had equal power to predict the risk for future type 2 diabetes compared with the insulin secretion/insulin resistance index.

CONCLUSIONS—The insulin secretion/insulin resistance index is useful as a predictor of future development of type 2 diabetes. A model based on the combination of the SADPM and either a modified version of the insulin secretion/insulin resistance index or 1-h plasma glucose concentration can equally predict future type 2 diabetes.

Abbreviations: IGT, impaired glucose tolerance • NGT, normal glucose tolerance • OGTT, oral glucose tolerance test • ROC, receiver-operating characteristic • SADPM, San Antonio Diabetes Prediction Model

CiteULike    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    What's this?

This article has been cited by other articles:

				R. Vettor, M. Granzotto, D. De Stefani, E. Trevellin, M. Rossato, M. G. Farina, G. Milan, C. Pilon, A. Nigro, G. Federspil, et al. Loss-of-Function Mutation of the GPR40 Gene Associates with Abnormal Stimulated Insulin Secretion by Acting on Intracellular Calcium Mobilization J. Clin. Endocrinol. Metab., September 1, 2008; 93(9): 3541 - 3550. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				M. A. Abdul-Ghani, T. Abdul-Ghani, N. Ali, and R. A. DeFronzo One-Hour Plasma Glucose Concentration and the Metabolic Syndrome Identify Subjects at High Risk for Future Type 2 Diabetes Diabetes Care, August 1, 2008; 31(8): 1650 - 1655. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				M. A. Abdul-Ghani, M. Matsuda, R. Jani, C. P. Jenkinson, D. K. Coletta, K. Kaku, and R. A. DeFronzo The relationship between fasting hyperglycemia and insulin secretion in subjects with normal or impaired glucose tolerance Am J Physiol Endocrinol Metab, August 1, 2008; 295(2): E401 - E406. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				F. Bonnet, S. Patel, M. Laville, B. Balkau, A. Favuzzi, L. D. Monti, N. Lalic, M. Walker, and on behalf of the European Group for the Study of I Influence of the ACE Gene Insertion/Deletion Polymorphism on Insulin Sensitivity and Impaired Glucose Tolerance in Healthy Subjects Diabetes Care, April 1, 2008; 31(4): 789 - 794. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				R. Muniyappa, S. Lee, H. Chen, and M. J. Quon Current approaches for assessing insulin sensitivity and resistance in vivo: advantages, limitations, and appropriate usage Am J Physiol Endocrinol Metab, January 1, 2008; 294(1): E15 - E26. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]