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Published online May 29, 2007
Diabetes Care 30:2314-2320, 2007
DOI: 10.2337/dc06-2389
© 2007 by the American Diabetes Association
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Pathophysiology/Complications
Original Article

Role of Insulin Resistance in Predicting Progression to Type 1 Diabetes

Ping Xu, MPH1, David Cuthbertson, MS1, Carla Greenbaum, MD2, Jerry P. Palmer, MD3, Jeffrey P. Krischer, PHD1 for the Diabetes Prevention Trial–Type 1 Study Group*

1 Pediatrics Epidemiology Center, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida
2 Benaroya Research Institute at Virginia Mason, Seattle, Washington
3 Veterans Affairs Puget Sound, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Address correspondence and reprint requests to Jeffrey P. Krischer, Division of Informatics and Biostatistics, Pediatrics Epidemiology Center, University of South Florida, 3650 Spectrum Blvd., Suite 100, Tampa, FL 33612. E-mail: jpkrischer{at}epi.usf.edu

OBJECTIVE—The purpose of this study was to determine whether insulin resistance is a risk factor for the development of type 1 diabetes in autoantibody-positive first-degree relatives of diabetic family members.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—Subjects (n = 186) who had a projected 25–50% risk for diabetes and subjects (n = 170) who had a projected >50% risk for type 1 diabetes in 5 years were followed until clinical diabetes onset or the end of the study as part of the Diabetes Prevention Trial–Type 1. We assessed insulin secretion with the first-phase insulin response (FPIR) and insulin resistance with homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) from an intravenous glucose tolerance test. The median follow-up was 4.3 years for moderate-risk subjects and 3.7 years for high-risk subjects.

RESULTS—During the follow-up period, 53 subjects in the moderate-risk group and 70 subjects in the high-risk group developed type 1 diabetes. After adjustments for confounders using multivariate analysis, HOMA-IR and the FPIR–to–HOMA-IR ratio were significantly associated with type 1 diabetes in both risk groups. In the moderate-risk population, the hazard ratio (HR) of HOMA-IR was 2.70 (95% CI 1.45–5.06) and the HR of FPIR-to-HOMA-IR was 0.32 (95% CI 0.18–0.57). In the high-risk population, the HR of HOMA-IR was 1.83 (95% CI 1.19–2.82) and the HR of FPIR–to–HOMA-IR was 0.56 (95% CI 0.40–0.78).

CONCLUSIONS—There is clear evidence of the association between insulin resistance and progression to type 1 diabetes. The combination of FPIR and HOMA-IR could be used as a better metabolic indicator for type 1 diabetes risk for prediction and suggests possible intervention strategies for diabetes prevention.

Abbreviations: DPT-1, Diabetes Prevention Trial–Type 1 • FPIR, first-phase insulin response • HOMA-IR, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance • IAA, insulin autoantibody • ICA, islet cell antibody • IVGTT, intravenous glucose tolerance test • OGTT, oral glucose tolerance test


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