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Diabetes Care Publish Ahead of Print published online ahead of print May 29, 2007
DOI: 10.2337/dc06-2461
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Original Research

POPULATION-BASED INCIDENCE OF TYPE 2 DIABETES IN NORTHERN SPAIN. THE "ASTURIAS STUDY"

S. Valdés, MD1,,4, P. Botas, MD2, E. Delgado, MD, PHD1, F. Diaz Cadórniga, MD1 and F. Álvarez, MD, PHD3

1 Endocrinology and Nutrition, Hospital Central de Asturias, Oviedo, Spain
2 Medicine, Hospital San Agustín, Avilés, Spain
3 Clinical Biochemistry, Hospital Central de Asturias, Oviedo, Spain
4 Endocrinology and Nutrition, Hospital Carlos Haya, Málaga, Spain (Carlos III Health Institute, RD06/0015/0008)

sergiovaldes{at}vodafone.es

ABSTRACT

Objective:The aim of this study was to define the incidence of type 2 diabetes in a low-risk Caucasian population in northern Spain and its association with various risk factors.

Research Design and Methods:The "Asturias Study" is a prospective, population-based survey of diabetes and cardiovascular risk factors. The baseline examination was carried out during 1998-1999 when 1034 individuals, aged 30-75 years, were randomly selected to determine the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and prediabetes in the Principality of Asturias (northern Spain). In 2004-2005, these same subjects were invited for a follow-up examination. Seven hundred participated. This study includes only those individuals without diabetes at baseline. We used the WHO 1999 criteria to classify glucose metabolism at both baseline and follow-up.

Results:The incidence of diabetes adjusted for the age and gender structure of Asturias was 10.8 cases per 1000 person/years (95% confidence interval, 8.1-14.8). The incidence rates were 5 per 1000 person/years in individuals with normoglycemia, 21 per 1000 person/years in individuals with isolated IGT, 34.7 per 1000 person/years in individuals with isolated IFG and 95.2 cases per 1000 person/years in individuals with combined IFG-IGT. Step-wise multiple logistic regression analysis showed that, together with FPG and 2hPG, which were the strongest predictors of diabetes, triglycerides and BMI were also independently associated with progression to diabetes.

Conclusions:This six-year prospective population-based study found an incidence of type 2 diabetes of 10.8 cases per 1000 person/years. Both FPG and 2hPG were strongly predictive of diabetes and their effect was additive.


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Copyright © 2007 by the American Diabetes Association.