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DIABETES RISK CALCULATOR: A Simple Tool for Detecting Undiagnosed Diabetes and Prediabetes

Archimedes, Inc.
GlaxoSmithKline

author{at}archimedesmodel.com

ABSTRACT

Objective: To develop a simple tool for the US population to calculate the probability that a person has either undiagnosed diabetes or prediabetes.

Research Design and Methods: We used data from NHANES III and two methods — logistic regression, and classification tree analysis — to build two models. We selected the classification tree model based on its equivalent accuracy but greater ease of use.

Results: The resulting tool, called DIABETES RISK CALCULATOR, includes questions on age, waist circumference, gestational diabetes, height, race/ethnicity, hypertension, family history, and exercise. Each terminal node specifies a person's probabilities of prediabetes or of undiagnosed diabetes. Terminal nodes can also be used categorically to designate a person as having high risk for (1) undiagnosed diabetes or prediabetes or (2) prediabetes or (3) neither undiagnosed diabetes or prediabetes. Using these classifications, the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and ROC area for detecting undiagnosed diabetes are 88%, 75%, 14%, 99.3%, and 0.85, respectively. For prediabetes or undiagnosed diabetes, the results are 75%, 65%, 49%, 85%, and 0.75, respectively. We validated the tool using v-fold cross-validation, and performed an independent validation against NHANES 1999–2004 data.

Conclusions: DIABETES RISK CALCULATOR is the only currently available noninvasive screening tool designed and validated to detect both prediabetes and undiagnosed diabetes in the US population.

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Beverley Balkau
Diabetes Care 2008 31: 1084-1085. [Extract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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