OBJECTIVE To assess the influence of long-term glycemic control on the development of background retinopathy in adolescents followed longitudinally from the onset of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Repeated retinal fluorescein angiographies, in intervals of 1–2 years, were evaluated prospectively in 346 patients (190 males, 156 females; 19.8 [8.8–35.4] years of age; diabetes duration of 10.4 [1.1–27.4] years at their latest eye examination, median [range]). The influences of long-term HbA_1c (mean of 18 [1–95] determinations per person) and microalbuminuria (≥2 of ≥3 measurements ≥ 15 μg/min × 1.73 m²) were studied by multiple linear regression, life-table analysis, and trend analyses.

RESULTS The rate of background retinopathy per 100 patient-years increased with poorer glycemic control from 0.7 (long-term HbA_1c < 7% to 7.3 (HbA_1c > 11%) following an exponential function. Life-table analysis after subdivision in HbA_1c quartiles of equal sizes (HbA_1c < 8, 8–9, 9–10, and > 10%) revealed an individual median expectation of background retinopathy after more than 25, 16.2, 12.7, or 12.0 years of diabetes, respectively. However, significant differences were found only between 8–9% and 9–10%, calculated either as prevalence, life-table analysis, or relative incidence, thus suggesting that a threshold model may also fit the data. After 12 years of diabetes, < 25% of those patients exhibiting microalbuminuria (n = 18) were expected to be free from retinopathy compared with 81% of those with normoalbuminuria (n = 86).

CONCLUSIONS Two statistical models are appropriate to explain the relationship between glycemic control and risk for background retinopathy: 1) a continuous exponential relationship as described by the DCCT or 2) the presence of a threshold HbA1c level at 9%. Thus, diabetes treatment in children should aim at long-term HbA1c levels < 9.0%, but every progress closer to normal may further reduce the risk.