Sequential trends in overall and cause-specific mortality in diabetic and nondiabetic Pima Indians.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To compare sequential trends in overall and cause-specific death rates for diabetic and nondiabetic Pima Indians. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Underlying causes of death in Pimas aged > or = 15 years old were determined for the years 1975-1989 from review of death certificates and medical records. Overall and cause-specific death rates were compared for consecutive intervals. RESULTS: The all-causes death rate, age- and sex-adjusted, did not change significantly between the first and second halves of the study for diabetic (death rate ratio [DRR] = 0.99, 95% CI 0.70-1.4) or nondiabetic Pimas (DRR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.74-1.1). Among diabetic Pimas, however, the death rate for diabetic nephropathy declined from 2.7 to 1.5/1,000 person-years (DRR = 0.55, 95% CI 0.33-0.93), with ischemic heart disease (IHD) replacing diabetic nephropathy as the leading cause in the second half (DRR = 1.5, 95% CI 0.91-2.6). For diabetic and nondiabetic Pimas combined, the death rate in three consecutive 5-year periods declined progressively for alcoholic liver disease (P = 0.024) and external causes of death (P = 0.016), the largest component of which was automobile accidents. CONCLUSIONS: The decrease in death rate for diabetic nephropathy may be a result of greater access to and improvements in renal replacement therapy. Because of shared risk factors, however, the IHD death rate increased and largely offset the decrease in diabetic nephropathy deaths. The decline in deaths from alcoholic liver disease and from automobile accidents parallels the national trend.