OBJECTIVE To estimate the rate of deterioration of glucose tolerance and evaluate risk factors for development of NIDDM in Navajo women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A retrospective analysis of 111 GDM deliveries over a 4-year period, 1983–1987, was conducted in 1994 to determine glucose tolerance status. Patients who had not developed NIDDM were recalled for a 2-h glucose tolerance test (GTT). Tested and non-tested patients were compared, as estimate of conversion to NIDDM was calculated, and risk factors for NIDDM were evaluated. A life-table analysis was developed to estimate the probability of NIDDM after GDM.

RESULTS At the time of chart review, 32 patients (29%) had already been diagnosed with NIDDM. Of the patients, 79 were offered GTT testing, and 56 (71%) returned for follow-up; 15 were diagnosed with NIDDM and 17 with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT); 47 (42%) and 64 (58%) patients in the cohort had developed NIDDM or NIDDM/IGT at the conclusion of the study period. Patients who developed NIDDM had greater BMIs, parity, and infant weights. Fasting blood glucose > 5.83 mmol/l, GTT > 41.63 mmol/l, and recurrence of GDM were associated with later NIDDM. A life-table analysis estimated a 53% likelihood of having NIDDM at an 11-year follow-up; a second model, based only on patients with known NIDDM status, predicted a 70% rate of NIDDM at an 11-year follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS A high proportion of Navajo women with GDM progressed to NIDDM. Postpartum counseling and periodic GTTs are recommended.