A Danish Diabetes Risk Score for Targeted Screening

Abstract

OBJECTIVE—To develop a simple self-administered questionnaire identifying individuals with undiagnosed diabetes with a sensitivity of 75% and minimizing the high-risk group needing subsequent testing.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—A population-based sample (Inter99 study) of 6,784 individuals aged 30–60 years completed a questionnaire on diabetes-related symptoms and risk factors. The participants underwent an oral glucose tolerance test. The risk score was derived from the first half and validated on the second half of the study population. External validation was performed based on the Danish Anglo-Danish-Dutch Study of Intensive Treatment in People with Screen Detected Diabetes in Primary Care (ADDITION) pilot study. The risk score was developed by stepwise backward multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS—The final risk score included age, sex, BMI, known hypertension, physical activity at leisure time, and family history of diabetes, items independently and significantly (P < 0.05) associated with the presence of previously undiagnosed diabetes. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.804 (95% CI 0.765–0.838) for the first half of the Inter99 population, 0.761 (0.720–0.803) for the second half of the Inter99 population, and 0.803 (0.721–0.876) for the ADDITION pilot study. The sensitivity, specificity, and percentage that needed subsequent testing were 76, 72, and 29%, respectively. The false-negative individuals in the risk score had a lower absolute risk of ischemic heart disease compared with the true-positive individuals (11.3 vs. 20.4%; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS—We developed a questionnaire to be used in a stepwise screening strategy for type 2 diabetes, decreasing the numbers of subsequent tests and thereby possibly minimizing the economical and personal costs of the screening strategy.