Population-Based Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Northern Spain

The Asturias Study

  1. Sergio Valdés, MD12,
  2. Patricia Botas, MD3,
  3. Elias Delgado, MD, PHD1,
  4. Francisco Álvarez, MD, PHD4 and
  5. Francisco Diaz Cadórniga, MD1
  1. 1Endocrinology and Nutrition, Hospital Central de Asturias, Oviedo, Spain
  2. 2Endocrinology and Nutrition, Hospital Carlos Haya, Málaga, Spain
  3. 3Medicine, Hospital San Agustín, Avilés, Spain
  4. 4Clinical Biochemistry, Hospital Central de Asturias, Oviedo, Spain
  1. Address correspondence and reprint requests to Dr. Sergio Valdés, Endocrinology and Nutrition, Hospital Carlos Haya, Plaza del Hospital Civil, 29009 Málaga, Spain. E-mail: sergiovaldes{at}vodafone.es

Abstract

OBJECTIVE—The aim of this study was to define the incidence of type 2 diabetes in a low-risk Caucasian population in northern Spain and its association with various risk factors.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—The Asturias Study is a prospective, population-based survey of diabetes and cardiovascular risk factors. The baseline examination was carried out during 1998–1999 when 1,034 individuals, aged 30–75 years, were randomly selected to determine the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes in the Principality of Asturias (northern Spain). In 2004–2005, these same subjects were invited for a follow-up examination; 700 participated. This study includes only those individuals who did not have diabetes at baseline. We used the World Health Organization 1999 criteria to classify glucose metabolism at both baseline and follow-up.

RESULTS—The incidence of diabetes adjusted for the age and sex structure of Asturias was 10.8 cases/1,000 person-years (95% CI 8.1–14.8). The incidence rates were 5 cases/1,000 person-years in individuals with normoglycemia, 21 cases/1,000 person-years in individuals with isolated impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), 34.7 cases/1,000 person-years in individuals with isolated impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and 95.2 cases/1,000 person-years in individuals with combined IFG-IGT. Stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis showed that, together with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-h plasma glucose, which were the strongest predictors of diabetes, triglycerides and BMI were also independently associated with progression to diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS—In this 6-year prospective population-based study, we found an incidence of type 2 diabetes of 10.8 cases/1,000 person-years. Both FPG and 2-h plasma glucose were strongly predictive of diabetes, and their effect was additive.

Footnotes

  • Published ahead of print at http://care.diabetesjournals.org on 29 May 2007. DOI: 10.2337/dc06-2461.

    A table elsewhere in this issue shows conventional and Système International (SI) units and conversion factors for many substances.

    The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked “advertisement” in accordance with 18 U.S.C Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact.

    • Accepted May 19, 2007.
    • Received December 3, 2006.
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  1. Published online before print May 29, 2007, doi: 10.2337/dc06-2461 Diabetes Care September 2007 vol. 30 no. 9 2258-2263
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