Validation of Prediction of Diabetes by the Archimedes Model and Comparison With Other Predicting Models

  1. Michael Stern, MD1,
  2. Ken Williams, MS2,
  3. David Eddy, MD, PHD3 and
  4. Richard Kahn, PHD4
  1. 1Division of Clinical Epidemiology, University of Texas Health Science Center, San Antonio, Texas
  2. 2KenAnCo Biostatistics, San Antonio, Texas
  3. 3Archimedes, Inc., San Francisco, California
  4. 4American Diabetes Association, Alexandria, Virginia
  1. Corresponding author: Richard Kahn, rkahn{at}diabetes.org

Abstract

OBJECTIVE—To validate the ability of the Archimedes model to accurately predict the risk of developing diabetes in individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—Subjects were randomly selected from the San Antonio Heart Study population. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (aROC) curve derived from the Archimedes model was calculated and also compared with the aROCs from two published multiple logistic regression models designed to estimate diabetes risk.

RESULTS—The aROC for the Archimedes model was 0.818 (95% CI 0.739–0.899) compared with aROCs of 0.869 (0.801–0.936) and 0.870 (0.802–0.937) for the two logistic regression models, respectively. Risk estimates from the logistic models were highly correlated with the estimates derived from the Archimedes model.

CONCLUSIONS—The Archimedes model predicts individual diabetes risk with a high level of sensitivity and specificity, comparable with that of models designed specifically for that purpose. Unlike the latter models, Archimedes also predicts the risk of numerous other health outcomes.

Footnotes

  • Published ahead of print at http://care.diabetesjournals.org on 28 May 2008.

    Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered. See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ for details.

    The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked “advertisement” in accordance with 18 U.S.C Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact.

    • Received March 13, 2008.
    • Accepted May 15, 2008.
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  1. Published online before print May 28, 2008, doi: 10.2337/dc08-0521 Diabetes Care August 2008 vol. 31 no. 8 1670-1671
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