Epidemiological Perspectives on Type 1 Diabetes in Childhood and Adolescence in Germany
20 years of the Baden-Württemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY)
- Stefan Ehehalt, MD1,
- Klaus Dietz, PHD2,
- Andre M. Willasch, MD3,
- Andreas Neu, MD1 and
- for the Baden-Württemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY) Group*
- 1University Children's Hospital, Tuebingen, Germany;
- 2Department of Medical Biometry, Eberhard-Karls-University, Tuebingen, Germany;
- 3Hospital for Children and Adolescents, Goethe University, Frankfurt, Germany.
- Corresponding author: Andreas Neu, andreas.neu{at}med.uni-tuebingen.de.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To predict the frequency of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence (<15 years of age) in Germany for the next 20 years.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data on diabetes onset has been collected by means of a registry in the federal German state of Baden-Württemberg (documentation period, 1987–2006; n = 5,108; completeness of data 98.1%).
RESULTS The current incidence rate (2000–2006) is 19.4 per 100,000 per year (95% CI 18.6–20.2). The annual incidence rate can be expressed as a square of a linear function of the calendar year X [y = (3.05 + 0.0778 × {X–1986})2; r2 = 0.90]. The highest increase per year was observed in the age-groups comprising 2- and 3-year-olds (12 and 13% per year, respectively). The incidence rate for the year 2026 is estimated to be 37.9 per 100,000 per year (95% CI 33.3–42.9).
CONCLUSIONS The increase that we found in younger children is characteristic of a left shift toward an earlier age.
Footnotes
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↵*A complete list of the Baden-Württemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY) Group members can be found in the acknowledgments.
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The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked “advertisement” in accordance with 18 U.S.C. Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact.
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- Received August 12, 2009.
- Accepted October 27, 2009.
- © 2010 by the American Diabetes Association.
