Is the Recent Rise in Type 2 Diabetes Incidence From 1984 to 2007 Explained by the Trend in Increasing BMI?
Evidence from a prospective study of British men
- Sarah L. Hardoon, MSC1,
- Richard W. Morris, PHD1,
- Mary C. Thomas, MSC1,
- S. Goya Wannamethee, PHD, FFPH1,
- Lucy T. Lennon, MSC1 and
- Peter H. Whincup, PHD, FRCP2
- 1Division of Population Health, University College London, London, U.K.;
- 2Division of Community Health Sciences, St George's, University of London, London, U.K.
- Corresponding author: Sarah Hardoon, s.hardoon{at}ucl.ac.uk.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To estimate the extent to which increasing BMI may explain the rise in type 2 diabetes incidence in British men from 1984 to 2007.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A representative cohort ratio of 6,460 British men was followed-up for type 2 diabetes incidence between 1984 (aged 45–65 years) and 2007 (aged 67–89 years). BMI was ascertained at regular intervals before and during the follow-up.
RESULTS Between 1984–1992 and 1999–2007, the age-adjusted hazard of type 2 diabetes more than doubled (hazard ratio 2.33 [95% CI 1.75–3.10]). Mean BMI rose by 1.42 kg/m2 (95% CI 1.10–1.74) between 1984 and 1999; this could explain 26% (95% CI 17–38) of the type 2 diabetes increase.
CONCLUSIONS An appreciable portion of the rise in type 2 diabetes can be attributed to BMI changes. A substantial portion remains unexplained, possibly associated with other determinants such as physical activity. This merits further research.
Footnotes
-
The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked “advertisement” in accordance with 18 U.S.C. Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact.
- Received December 16, 2009.
- Accepted March 29, 2010.
- © 2010 by the American Diabetes Association.
Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered. See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ for details.
