Epidemiological perspectives on type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence in Germany: 20 years of the DIARY registry
- Stefan Ehehalt, MD1,
- Klaus Dietz, PhD2,
- Andre M. Willasch, MD3,
- Andreas Neu, MD (andreas.neu{at}med.uni-tuebingen.de)1 and
- for the DIARY-Group Baden-Wuerttemberg
- 1University Children's Hospital, Tuebingen, Germany
- 2Department of Medical Biometry, Eberhard-Karls-University, Tuebingen
- 3University Children's Hospital, Frankfurt, Germany
Abstract
Objective: To predict the frequency of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence (<15 years of age) in Germany for the next 20 years.
Research Design and Methods: Data on diabetes onset has been collected by means of a registry in the Federal German state of Baden-Wuerttemberg (documentation period, 1987-2006; n=5,108; completeness of data 98.1%).
Results: The current incidence rate (2000-2006) is 19.4/100,000/year (95% CI 18.6-20.2). The annual incidence rate can be expressed as a square of a linear function of the calendar year x (y = (3.05+0.0778*(x-1986))2, r2 = 0.90). The highest increase per year was observed in the age groups comprising 2- and 3-year-olds (12% and 13% per year, respectively). The incidence rate for the year 2026 is estimated to be 37.9/100,000/year (95% CI 33.3-42.9).
Conclusions: The increase that we found in younger children is characteristic of a left shift towards an earlier age.
Footnotes
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- Received August 12, 2009.
- Accepted October 27, 2009.
- Copyright © American Diabetes Association
