Cyclical Variation in the Incidence of Childhood Type 1 Diabetes in Western Australia (1985–2010)

  1. Elizabeth A. Davis, FRACP1,2
  1. 1Department of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Princess Margaret Hospital, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
  2. 2Telethon Institute for Child Health Research, Centre for Child Health Research, The University of Western Australia, Western Australia, Australia
  3. 3Institute of Health and Rehabilitation Research, University of Notre Dame, Western Australia, Australia
  1. Corresponding author: Elizabeth A. Davis, Elizabeth.Davis{at}


OBJECTIVE To examine the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in Western Australia from 1985–2010.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Incidence rates were calculated for children aged 0–14 years and were analyzed by calendar year, sex, and age at diagnosis.

RESULTS There were 1,873 cases, and the mean incidence was 18.1/100,000 person-years (95% CI: 17.5–19.2). The incidence increased by 2.3% a year (1.6–2.9%) with a sinusoidal 5-year cyclical variation of 14% (7–22%). The lowest rate of increase in incidence was observed in 0–4-year-olds.

CONCLUSIONS The cyclical pattern in incidence observed supports the role of environmental factors in childhood type 1 diabetes.

  • Received January 31, 2012.
  • Accepted May 15, 2012.

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  1. Diabetes Care
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