Table 1—

Comparison of model and trial results: trials that include people with diabetes

Name of trialPopulationOutcomeYearsInitial sizeTreatment groupResult (%)
ModelTrial
UKPDSNewly diagnosed type 2 diabetesMyocardial infarction121,138Conventional19.619
2,729Intensive*15.416
Albuminuria121,138Conventional33.834
2,729Intensive21.323
Proteinuria121,138Conventional9.810.3
2,729Intensive7.66.8
Retinopathy121,138Conventional5049
2,729Intensive3939
DPPImpaired glucose tolerance, Impaired fasting glucose and OverweightProgression to diabetes41,082Control3837
1,073Metformin3128
1,079Lifestyle2120
HPSHigh risk for CAD eventsMajor coronary events510,267Placebo11.711.8
10,269Simvastatin88.8
CHD death510,267Placebo6.26.9
10,269Simvastatin55.5
HOPEHigh CAD risk§Myocardial infarction4.54,652Placebo11.311.3
4,645Ramipril8.99
MICRO-HOPEHigh CAD risk, type 2 diabetesMyocardial infarction41,808Placebo1312.9
1,769Ramipril910.2
CARERecent myocardial infarction, average cholesterolMyocardial infarction52,078Placebo12.313.2
2,081Simvastatin9.310.2
CHD death52,078Placebo6.25.7
2,081Simvastatin4.44.6
LewisType 1 diabetes, nephropathyDoubling of creatinine4202Placebo3733
207Captopril1922
IRMA-2Type 2 diabetes, micro-albuminureaNephropathy1.8201Placebo17.415
195Irbesartan 1509.59
194Irbesartan 3005.34.5
DCCT primaryType 1 diabetes without retinopathyRetinopathy8378Loose control3438
348Tight control9.310
Albuminuria8378Loose control2928
348Tight control1715
Proteinuria9378Loose control3225
348Tight control1518
DCCT secondaryType 1 diabetes with retinopathyRetinopathy8352Loose control5248
363Tight control2221
Albuminuria8352Loose control3335
363Tight control2222
Proteinuria9352Loose control911
363Tight control56
IDNTType 2 diabetes, nephropathyDoubling of creatinine4579Placebo3537
569Irbesartan2628
  • * Sulphonylurea, Metformin, or insulin;

  • not used to build physiology model;

  • CAD, occlusive arterial disease or diabetes;

  • § CAD or diabetes plus at least one CVD risk factor;

  • eight additional validation exercises were done for the under-60 and over-60 age-groups. No model results were significantly different from trial results.