Table 2—

Comparison of model and trial results: for trials of CAD

Name of trialPopulationOutcomeYearsInitial sizeTreatment groupResult (%)
ModelTrial
LIPID*Acute MI within 3–36 months, “broad range” of lipid levelsCHD death64,502Placebo7.58.3
4,512Pravastatin6.56
Myocardial infarction64,502Placebo14.415.6
4,512Pravastatin1112
HHS*Middle aged men, dyslipidemiaMyocardial infarction52,030Placebo4.24.1
2,051Gemfibrozil32.7
4SHistory of angina or acute myocardial infarctionMyocardial infarction5.42,223Placebo23.825
2,221Simvastatin14.216
SHEP*Isolated systolic hypertensionCAD events4.52,371Placebo5.85.9
2,365Antihypertensive4.54.3
LRC*Primary hypercholesterolemiaMyocardial infarction4.51,543Placebo5.46
1,543Cholestyramine45
MRC*Mild hypertensionMyocardial infarctions48,677Placebo4.54.5
8,677Antihypertensive3.33.4
WOSCOPS*Very high risk and hyper-cholesterolemiaMyocardial infarctions53,293Placebo5.27.9§
3,302Pravastatin2.65
Coronary heart disease deaths52,078Placebo1.91.7
2,081Pravastatin1.11.2
VA-HITPrevious CAD, low HDLMyocardial infarctions51,264Placebo25.223
1,267Gemfibrozil17.819.7
Coronary heart disease death51,264Placebo10.29.6
1,267Gemfibrozil8.78.4
Stroke51,264Placebo4.26.6
1,267Gemfibrozil3.55.2
  • * Not used to build physiology model;

  • step 1: Chlorthalidone, step 2: Atenolol;

  • Bendrofluazide or propranolol;

  • § difference between model results and trial results statistically significant, P < 0.01;

  • ‖difference between model results and trial results statistically significant, P < 0.05.