Table 3—

The risk of incidence of type 2 diabetes among 3,260 nondiabetic Japanese men during 7 years of follow-up in relation to serum liver enzyme levels

OutcomeLiver enzyme
P for trend
Quintile 1Quintile 2Quintile 3Quintile 4Quintile 5
GGT (units/l)<15 (n = 625)15–20 (n = 595)21–30 (n = 709)31–52 (n = 679)≥53 (n = 652)
 Cases/person-years18/3,98440/3,71358/4,35377/4,09183/3,909
 Incidence density (per 1,000 person-years)4.510.813.318.821.2
 Adjusted relative risk (95% CI)
  Model 1*1.0 (referent)2.31 (1.33–4.03)2.89 (1.70–4.90)4.01 (2.40–6.70)4.42 (2.65–7.36)<0.001
  Model 21.0 (referent)1.79 (1.02–3.13)2.04 (1.19–3.51)2.68 (1.57–4.57)3.06 (1.77–5.30)<0.001
  Model 31.0 (referent)1.55 (0.88–2.72)1.77 (1.01–3.08)2.08 (1.18–3.66)2.44 (1.34–4.46)<0.001
ALT (units/l)<14 (n = 568)14–17 (n = 717)18–22 (n = 575)23–30 (n = 700)≥31 (n = 700)
 Cases/person-years23/3,57740/4,45148/3,56659/4,319106/4,138
 Incidence density (per 1,000 person-years)6.49.013.513.725.6
 Adjusted relative risk (95% CI)
  Model 1*1.0 (referent)1.36 (0.81–2.27)2.07 (1.26–3.40)2.15 (1.33–3.49)4.07 (2.59–6.39)<0.001
  Model 21.0 (referent)1.30 (0.78–2.17)1.71 (1.04–2.81)1.71 (1.05–2.81)2.47 (1.54–3.95)<0.001
  Model 31.0 (referent)1.23 (0.72–2.07)1.55 (0.90–2.67)1.52 (0.85–2.72)2.07 (1.07–3.98)0.030
AST (units/l)<17 (n = 512)17–19 (n = 749)20–21 (n = 519)22–26 (n = 813)≥27 (n = 667)
 Cases/person-years29/3,22742/4,70540/3,27684/4,87981/3,964
 Incidence density (per 1,000 person-years)9.08.912.217.220.4
 Adjusted relative risk (95% CI)
  Model 1*1.0 (referent)0.97 (0.67–1.56)1.33 (0.83–2.15)1.84 (1.20–2.80)2.20 (1.44–3.37)<0.001
  Model 21.0 (referent)0.90 (0.56–1.44)1.28 (0.79–2.07)1.50 (0.98–2.31)1.54 (1.00–2.38)0.002
  Model 31.0 (referent)0.73 (0.45–1.19)0.92 (0.55–1.55)0.89 (0.52–1.51)0.75 (0.41–1.36)0.659
Alkaline phosphatase (units/l)<140 (n = 632)≥193 (n = 670)
 Cases/person-years38/3,95450/3,99252/4,15556/3,91980/4,031
 Incidence density (per 1,000 person-years)9.612.512.514.319.8
 Adjusted relative risk (95% CI)
  Model 1*1.0 (referent)1.30 (0.85–1.99)1.32 (0.87–2.01)1.49 (0.99–2.25)2.04 (1.39–3.00)<0.001
  Model 21.0 (referent)1.28 (0.84–1.96)1.33 (0.88–2.03)1.38 (0.91–2.10)1.73 (1.16–2.59)0.008
  Model 31.0 (referent)1.24 (0.81–1.90)1.23 (0.81–1.88)1.25 (0.82–1.90)1.48 (0.99–2.23)0.084
  • *

    * Model 1: adjustment for age;

  • model 2: model 1 plus adjustment for family history of diabetes, BMI, alcohol intake, cigarette smoking, regular physical activity, fasting plasma glucose level, and WBC count;

  • model 3: model 2 plus adjustment for all of the other liver enzymes.