Table 4

Matrix of HRs (95% CI) for incident diabetes associated with a specific baseline BMI and increase in BMI over 9 years*

Baseline BMIIncrease in BMI over 9 years: ≥30 and <45 years old at baselineIncrease in BMI over 9 years: ≥45 and <60 years old at baseline
012510012510
Blacks
 221 (ref)1.28 (1.04, 1.57)1.43 (1.06, 1.94)1.66 (1.08, 2.55)1.86 (1.10, 3.15)1 (ref)1.03 (0.97, 1.09)1.04 (0.95, 1.13)1.06 (0.93, 1.20)1.07 (0.92, 1.24)
 271.29 (1.14, 1.47)1.65 (1.28, 2.12)1.85 (1.32, 2.59)2.15 (1.36, 3.39)2.40 (1.39, 4.16)1.25 (1.17, 1.35)1.29 (1.17, 1.41)1.30 (1.17, 1.46)1.32 (1.15, 1.53)1.34 (1.14, 1.58)
 321.67 (1.30, 2.15)2.13 (1.52, 2.99)2.39 (1.59, 3.59)2.77 (1.66, 4.64)3.10 (1.70, 5.65)1.57 (1.37, 1.81)1.62 (1.39, 1.88)1.64 (1.39, 1.93)1.66 (1.38, 2.00)1.68 (1.37, 2.07)
Whites
 221 (ref)1.58 (1.29, 1.93)1.95 (1.45, 2.62)2.57 (1.69, 3.91)3.17 (1.90, 5.30)1 (ref)1.18 (1.12, 1.25)1.28 (1.18, 1.39)1.42 (1.26, 1.60)1.54 (1.33, 1.77)
 271.37 (1.18, 1.58)2.15 (1.70, 2.72)2.66 (1.94, 3.63)3.51 (2.29, 5.37)4.33 (2.58, 7.25)1.38 (1.30, 1.46)1.63 (1.51, 1.77)1.76 (1.60, 1.95)1.95 (1.72, 2.22)2.11 (1.81, 2.46)
 321.86 (1.39, 2.51)2.94 (2.10, 4.12)3.63 (2.45 5.36)4.79 (2.96, 7.75)5.91 (3.38, 10.32)1.90 (1.68, 2.13)2.25 (1.97, 2.55)2.43 (2.11, 2.80)2.69 (2.29, 3.17)2.91 (2.43, 3.49)
  • *Increase in BMI is assumed to be a constant linear function over time. Within each race and age-group, a baseline BMI of 22 kg/m2 and no weight gain over 9 years was used as the referent. Adjusted for baseline BMI, HDL-C, natural log–transformed triglycerides, fasting glucose, and hypertension group, as well as interaction terms for age-group × baseline covariates, race × baseline covariates, and age-group × race × baseline covariates.

  • †BMI units expressed as kg/m2.