Table 2

Cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes in metabolic health and BMI categories

BMI categoryBMI category cumulative incidence at 5 yearsaBMI category cumulative incidence at 10 yearsaRisk categoryProportion of healthy or unhealthy individuals in each BMI categoryRR within BMI categoryRisk category 5-year cumulative incidence (95% CI)*Risk category 10-year cumulative incidence (95% CI)*
Lean0.3%0.8%Metabolically healthy lean; metabolically unhealthy lean0.82;0.181;4.00.2% (0.1–0.2); 0.6% (0.6–0.8)0.5% (0.5–0.6); 2.2% (1.9–2.5)
Overweight0.8%2.7%Metabolically healthy overweight; metabolically unhealthy overweight0.59;0.411;3.40.4% (0.3–0.5); 1.4% (1.3–1.5)1.3% (1.1–1.6); 4.5% (4.2–4.9)
Obese1.8%5.9%Metabolically healthy obese; metabolically unhealthy obese0.38;0.621;2.51.0% (0.8–1.1); 2.4% (2.2–2.5)3.1% (2.6–3.5); 7.6% (7.3–8.0)
  • aFrom the EPIC-InterAct Study.

  • *Derived via a probabilistic analysis, which simultaneously incorporates the uncertainty in each of the parameter estimate (openBUGS) (20,000 simulations).