Table 3

Logistic regression models for the prediction of the 25-year cumulative incidence of microalbuminuria, macroalbuminuria, ESRD, and ESRD/mortality from age at diabetes onset and chronological age

Diabetes duration
20 years30 years40 years50 years
Microalbuminuria
 Total cohortn = 550n = 444
  Age at onset1.04 (0.99–1.09)1.01 (0.95–1.08)
  Chronological age1.00 (0.97–1.03)1.01 (0.97–1.05)
  Women0.78 (0.54–1.12)0.73 (0.46–1.17)
  AIC690.167445.161
 1950–64 cohortn = 187n = 214n = 200
  Age at onset1.17 (1.02–1.33)0.98 (0.87–1.11)0.98 (0.82–1.14)
  Chronological age0.91 (0.81–1.01)1.09 (0.98–1.20)1.14 (0.99–1.30)
  Women0.50 (0.27–0.93)0.64 (0.33–1.26)0.65 (0.27–1.56)
  AIC239.548222.516148.567
 1965–80 cohortn = 393n = 363n = 230
  Age at onset1.02 (0.95–1.09)0.97 (0.90–1.04)0.94 (0.82–1.08)
  Chronological age1.03 (0.98–1.08)1.07 (1.01–1.13)1.05 (0.93–1.20)
  Women0.99 (0.66–1.48)1.05 (0.67–1.66)0.82 (0.42–1.61)
  AIC545.410445.202225.426
Macroalbuminuria
 Total cohortn = 519n = 376
  Age at onset1.07 (1.02–1.12)1.04 (0.98–1.10)
  Chronological age1.01 (0.99–1.04)1.00 (0.97–1.04)
  Women0.67 (0.47–0.96)0.52 (0.34–0.79)
  AIC695.457509.813
 1950–64 cohortn = 201n = 198n = 163
  Age at onset1.19 (1.06–1.34)1.06 (0.95–1.17)1.06 (0.94–1.21)
  Chronological age0.88 (0.81–0.97)0.98 (0.91–1.07)0.98 (0.88–1.08)
  Women0.38 (0.21–0.68)0.38 (0.21–0.69)0.43 (0.21–0.87)
  AIC263.270266.998195.508
 1965–80 cohortn = 388n = 318n = 178
  Age at onset1.07 (0.99–1.15)1.05 (0.97–1.13)1.01 (0.89–1.15)
  Chronological age1.06 (0.999–1.12)1.05 (0.996–1.11)1.04 (0.92–1.16)
  Women1.37 (0.86–2.18)1.01 (0.64–1.60)0.73 (0.40–1.33)
  AIC440.228422.235248.035
ESRD
 Total cohortn = 756n = 533
  Age at onset1.07 (1.02–1.12)1.07 (1.02–1.13)
  Chronological age1.02 (0.99–1.04)1.00 (0.97–1.03)
  Women0.85 (0.60–1.20)0.71 (0.50–1.01)
  AIC808.087706.064
 1950–64 cohortn = 321n = 299n = 269
  Age at onset1.34 (1.22–1.48)1.20 (1.11–1.29)1.19 (1.10–1.29)
  Chronological age0.75 (0.69–0.81)0.84 (0.79–0.89)0.87 (0.82–0.92)
  Women0.56 (0.32–0.98)0.62 (0.38–1.02)0.62 (0.37–1.05)
  AIC323.906373.734333.904
 1965–80 cohortn = 491n = 435n = 234
  Age at onset1.19 (1.03–1.37)1.10 (0.999–1.20)1.07 (0.94–1.23)
  Chronological age1.04 (0.95–1.15)1.05 (0.99–1.12)1.07 (0.95–1.20)
  Women1.41 (0.63–3.14)1.69 (0.96–2.98)1.07 (0.59–1.96)
  AIC201.173347.748264.074
ESRD/mortality
 Total cohortn = 862n = 663
  Age at onset1.06 (1.02–1.10)1.10 (1.05–1.15)
  Chronological age0.99 (0.97–1.01)0.96 (0.94–0.99)
  Women0.81 (0.61–1.07)0.74 (0.54–1.01)
  AIC1,093.305903.823
 1950–64 cohortn = 388n = 387n = 369
  Age at onset1.39 (1.27–1.53)1.24 (1.15–1.34)1.19 (1.10–1.29)
  Chronological age0.72 (0.67–0.78)0.82 (0.78–0.86)0.87 (0.83–0.92)
  Women0.62 (0.37–1.03)0.72 (0.46–1.14)0.67 (0.40–1.10)
  AIC376.859440.838380.697
 1965–80 cohortn = 505n = 474n = 276
  Age at onset1.12 (1.00–1.25)1.04 (0.97–1.12)1.05 (0.95–1.17)
  Chronological age1.04 (0.96–1.12)1.05 (0.999–1.11)1.06 (0.97–1.17)
  Women0.82 (0.42–1.57)1.15 (0.74–1.79)0.82 (0.50–1.35)
  AIC275.230493.647362.927
  • Data are OR (95% CI) unless otherwise indicated. AIC, Akaike information criterion.