Table 1

Simulated population-based prediction of T1D using HLA screening, the original T1D GRS, and the T1D GRS2

T1D centile*Population centile**GRS2Specificity (%)Sensitivity (%)1-Specificity (%)Youden index (j)T1D risk (%)***
570.211.6869.594.830.50.6430.9
1079.412.3678.989.421.10.6831.3
2590.613.4590.477.59.60.6792.4
5096.814.6096.753.73.30.5054.7
7599.115.6599.130.20.90.2939.1
9099.816.5499.813.20.20.13015.7
9599.917.0699.97.20.10.07222.8
T1D centile*Population centile**GRS1Specificity (%)Sensitivity (%)1-Specificity (%)Youden index (j)T1D risk (%)***
553.313.4851.995.948.10.4780.6
1060.714.0663.992.536.10.5640.8
2573.815.0781.782.918.30.6461.3
5086.116.1694.056.36.00.5032.7
7593.317.1798.332.61.70.3085.4
9096.517.8399.518.30.50.1789.9
9597.818.1999.89.00.20.08811.8
T1D centile*Risk categoryHLA typeSpecificity (%)Sensitivity (%)1-Specificity (%)Youden index (j)T1D risk (%)***
BackgroundOther0.0100.00.00.0000.3
57.0ModerateDR3/3, DR4/X79.177.023.00.5610.6
81.1HighDR4/496.341.358.70.3762.5
84.5Very HighDR3/497.237.063.10.3423.8
  • Risk of T1D is calculated assuming a 0.3% population prevalence of T1D.

  • *T1D cases in T1DGC.

  • **Centile in UK Biobank European population.

  • ***Risk of T1D is calculated assuming a 0.3% population prevalence of T1D.