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Epidemiology/Health Services/Psychosocial Research

Global Prevalence of Diabetes

Estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030

  1. Sarah Wild, MB BCHIR, PHD1,
  2. Gojka Roglic, MD2,
  3. Anders Green, MD, PHD, DR MED SCI3,
  4. Richard Sicree, MBBS, MPH4 and
  5. Hilary King, MD, DSC2
  1. 1Public Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
  2. 2Department of Non-Communicable Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
  3. 3Department of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark
  4. 4International Diabetes Institute, Caulfield, Victoria, Australia
  1. Address correspondence and reprint requests to Dr. Sarah Wild, Public Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland. E-mail: sarah.wild{at}ed.ac.uk
Diabetes Care 2004 May; 27(5): 1047-1053. https://doi.org/10.2337/diacare.27.5.1047
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Figures

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  • Figure 1—
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    Figure 1—

    Global diabetes prevalence by age and sex for 2000.

  • Figure 2—
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    Figure 2—

    Estimated number of adults with diabetes by age-group, year, and countries for the developed and developing categories and for the world.

Tables

  • Figures
  • Table 1—

    List of diabetes prevalence studies by country of study giving sample size, age-group, and the countries to which the data were extrapolated

    Country of study, year, and reference*Sample sizeAge-group (years)Additional countries that estimates were applied to
    Australia, 2000 (21)†11,247≥25New Zealand
    Bolivia, 1998 (22)†2,948≥20Ecuador, Peru
    Brazil, 1988/1989 (23)†2,05130–69Argentina, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela
    Cameroon, published 1997 (24)†1,76724–74Angola, Central African Republic, Congo, Gabon, Guinea, Sao Tome, and Principe
    China, 1994 (4)†‡224,25125–64North Korea/Democratic People’s Republic of Korea‡
    Colombia, 1988/1989 (25)670≥30Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama
    Fiji, 1980 (26)‡1,709≥20Kiribati‡, Marshall Islands‡, Micronesia (Federated States)‡, Palau‡, Papua New Guinea‡, Solomon Islands‡, Vanuatu‡
    Ghana, 1998 (27)†4,733≥25Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Gambia, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo
    India, 2000 (28)†11,216≥20Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Nepal
    Iran, 1999/2000 (29)†9,229≥20Azerbaijan, Iraq, Yemen
    Israel (30)†‡1,50225–64
    Japan Funagata, 1990–1992 (31)†2,624≥40
    Jordan (32)†2,836≥25Syria, urban Egypt
    Lebanon†§2,518≥30
    Malta (33)†2,149≥15
    Mauritius (34)†‡4,92925–74Seychelles
    Mongolia (35)†‡2,449≥35
    Nauru (36)†‡1,546≥20
    Netherlands, 1989–1992 (37)†2,48450–74Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, U.K.
    Oman, 1991 (38)2,963≥20Qatar
    Pakistan: rural Baluchistan (39)†570≥25Afghanistan
    Pakistan: Sindh, 1994 (40)967≥25
    Paraguay, 1991/1992 (41)†1,606 urban white Hispanic20–74Suriname
    Poland¶2,52325–74Bosnia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Ukraine
    Russia‖1,60225–64
    Samoa (42)†‡1,77225–74Cook Islands‡, Niue‡, Tonga‡, Tuvalu‡
    Saudi Arabia (43)†‡25,3372–77Bahrain‡, Kuwait‡
    Singapore (44)†‡3,56818–69Brunei‡, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand
    South Africa (45)†729≥30Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland, Zimbabwe
    South Korea/Republic of Korea (46)†2,520≥30
    Spain (47)†2,21430–89Andorra, Italy, Monaco, San Marino, Portugal
    Sudan (48)†1,284≥25Eritrea, Ethiopia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger
    Tanzania, 1996/1997 (5)†1,698≥15Burundi, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda, Zambia
    Trinidad, 1977–1981 (49)2,31535–69Antigua and Barbuda‡, Bahamas‡, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada‡, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, St. Kitts and Nevis‡, St. Lucia‡, St. Vincent and the Grenadines‡
    Tunisia, 1976/1977, 1980/1981 (50)3,826 urban≥20Algeria, Libya, Morocco
    1,787 rural
    Turkey (51)†24,788≥20Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Moldova, Romania
    United Arab Emirates, 2000†‡#5,844≥19
    U.S., 1988–1994 (52)†2,84440–74Canada
    Uzbekistan, 1996 (53)‡1,956≥35Armenia‡, Georgia‡, Kazakhstan‡, Kyrgyzstan‡, Tajikistan‡, Turkmenistan‡
    Vietnam†**1,121≥25Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar
    • *

      ↵* Year indicates year of study, if given, or year of publication.

    • †

      ↵† Indicates data that were not used in estimates for 1990.

    • ‡

      ↵‡ Indicates same diabetes prevalence data used for urban and rural populations.

    • §

      ↵§ I. Salti, M. Khogali, S. Alam, N. Nassar, A. Masri, personal communication.

    • ‖

      ↵‖ E. Shubnikov, personal communication.

    • ¶

      ↵¶ Z. Szybinski, W. Zukowski, R. Rita, J. Sieradzki, I. Turska-Karbowska, M. Gizler, personal communication.

    • #

      ↵# M. Malik, A. Bakir, B. Abi Saab, G.R., H.K., personal communication.

    • **

      ↵** P. Khi, personal communication.

  • Table 2—

    Estimated numbers of people with diabetes by region for 2000 and 2030 and summary of population changes

    Region (all ages)200020302000–2030
    Number of people with diabetesNumber of people with diabetesPercentage of change in number of people with diabetes*Percentage of change in total population*Percentage of change in population >65 years of age*Percentage of change in urban population*
    Established market economies44,26868,15654980N/A
    Former socialist economies11,66513,96020−1442N/A
    India31,70579,44115140168101
    China20,75742,32110416168115
    Other Asia and Islands22,32858,1091484219891
    Sub-Saharan Africa7,14618,64516197147192
    Latin America and the Caribbean13,30732,9591484019456
    Middle Eastern Crescent20,05152,7941636719494
    World171,228366,2121143713461
    • *

      ↵* A positive value indicates an increase, a negative value indicates a decrease.

  • Table 3—

    List of countries with the highest numbers of estimated cases of diabetes for 2000 and 2030

    Ranking2000
    2030
    CountryPeople with diabetes (millions)CountryPeople with diabetes (millions)
    1India31.7India79.4
    2China20.8China42.3
    3U.S.17.7U.S.30.3
    4Indonesia8.4Indonesia21.3
    5Japan6.8Pakistan13.9
    6Pakistan5.2Brazil11.3
    7Russian Federation4.6Bangladesh11.1
    8Brazil4.6Japan8.9
    9Italy4.3Philippines7.8
    10Bangladesh3.2Egypt6.7
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Global Prevalence of Diabetes
Sarah Wild, Gojka Roglic, Anders Green, Richard Sicree, Hilary King
Diabetes Care May 2004, 27 (5) 1047-1053; DOI: 10.2337/diacare.27.5.1047

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Global Prevalence of Diabetes
Sarah Wild, Gojka Roglic, Anders Green, Richard Sicree, Hilary King
Diabetes Care May 2004, 27 (5) 1047-1053; DOI: 10.2337/diacare.27.5.1047
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