Table 2—

Predictors and ORs from the best models predicting 1996 macro- and microvascular, infectious, and metabolic events, derivation data set

M/M events (n = 1,997)
ID events (n = 810)
MET events (n = 187)
PredictorORNumerical scorePredictorORNumerical scorePredictorORNumerical score
Outpatient M/M diag-Inpatient events (1994–1995)Inpatient MET events (1994–
  noses (1994–1995) No1.00  1995)
 No1.00 Yes2.64*3 No1.00
 Yes2.70*3Outpatient M/M diagnoses Yes6.90*3
Inpatient M/M events  (1994–1995)Diabetes treatment
  (1994–1995) No1.00  Diet only (reference)1.00
 No1.00 Yes1.45*1 Oral agents only0.40−3
 Yes1.70*2Age (one decade)1.34* Insulin and oral agents0.52
Age (one decade)1.24*Number of visits to specialists Insulin only1.602
Antihypertensives None (reference)1.00Mean HbA1c (1994–1995)
 None (reference)1.00 1–31.09 <7.0% (reference)1.00
 One1.211 4–61.31 7–8%1.29
 Two or more1.58*2 ≥71.67*2 9–10%1.93
Serum creatinineSerum creatinine ≥10%5.07*3
 <1.0 mg/dl1.00 <1.0 (reference)1.00 Missing2.29
 1.0–1.31.16 1.0–1.31.13Age (one decade)0.81*
 1.3–1.51.24 1.3–1.51.74§2Emergency department visit
 1.5–2.01.46§1 1.5–2.01.85*2  (1994–1995)
 >2.01.82*2  >2.02.49*3 No1.00
 Missing0.86 Missing0.78 Yes2.04§3
Diabetes treatmentOutpatient ID diagnosesObesity status
 Diet only (reference)1.00  (1994–1995) Lean (reference)1.00
 Oral agents only1.09 No1.00 Obese0.39*−3
 Insulin and oral1.06 Yes1.81*2 Morbidly obese0.21*−3
  agentsNonmaternity hospitalizations BMI missing1.04
 Insulin only1.42*1  (1993–1995)Race
Mean HbA1c (1994– No1.00 White (reference)1.00
  1995) Yes1.37§1 Black1.00
 <7.0% (reference)1.00Treatment Hispanic/Latino0.67
 7–8%1.11 Diet only (reference)1.00 Asian0.22−3
 8–10%1.33§1 Oral agents only1.02 Native American/Other1.00
 ≥10%1.70*2 Insulin and oral agents1.411 Missing0.90
 Missing1.22 Insulin only1.47§1Inpatient M/M events (1994–
Albuminuria  1995)
 Absent1.00 No1.00
 Present1.25§1 Yes1.762
 Missing1.24§1Sex
Primary care visits Female1.00
 None (reference)1.00 Male0.61−2
 1–31.13Smoking status
 4–61.17 Nonsmoker (reference)1.00
 >71.431 Ex-smoker1.02
Outpatient diagnosis Current smoker1.582
  of obesity Missing0.72
 No1.00Use of antilipemic
 Yes0.73§  medications
Outpatient ID diagnoses No1.00
 No1.00 Yes0.48§−3
 Yes1.25§–1Mean LDL cholesterol
Mean total cholesterol  <160 mg/dl (reference)1.00
 <240 mg/dl (reference)1.00  ≥160 mg/dl2.023
 ≥240 mg/dl1.27§1  Missing1.04
 Missing1.07
Self-report of neuropathy
 No1.00
 Yes1.26§1
 Missing1.06
Education
 <9 years1.11
 9–11 years0.89
 High-school graduate1.00
 Some college0.99
 College graduate0.97
 Graduate school0.76−1
 Missing1.08
Type of diabetes
 Type 2 (reference)1.00
 Type 10.64−2
 Uncertain0.71
 Missing1.02
Sex
 Female1.00
 Male1.13
  • *

    * P < 0.0001;

  • P < 0.01;

  • §

    § P < 0.001;

  • P < 0.05;

  • age was treated as a continuous variable and scored as follows: macro- and microvascular model 19–29 years = 0, 30–39 years = 1, 40–59 years = 2, ≥60 years = 3; infectious disease model 19–29 years = 0, 30–39 years = 1, 40–49 years = 2, ≥50 years = 3; metabolic model 19–29 years = 0; 30–39 years = −1, 40–59 years = −2, ≥60 years = −3; ID, infectious disease; MET, metabolic; M/M, macro- and microvascular.