Table 2—

AUCs for various models for incident CHD with regard to risk factors by sex and diabetes status: the ARIC, 1987–1998

DiabetesNo diabetesDiabetesNo diabetes
No. of CHD events95212130515
Basic − (SBP + meds)0.6960.7510.6700.668
Basic − cholesterol0.6910.7790.6580.667
Basic − HDL cholesterol0.7150.7700.6480.666
Basic − smoking status0.6910.7480.6710.679
Basic + BMI0.7310.7860.6740.690
Basic + waist-to-hip ratio0.7230.7860.6890.689
Basic + heart rate0.7230.7850.6720.688
Basic + sport activity0.7360.7860.6740.692
Basic + residual FEV10.7270.7870.6740.690
Basic + Keys score0.7210.7850.6940.691
Basic + cigarette packs-years0.7260.7860.6720.693
Basic + creatinine0.7320.7850.6720.688
Basic + lipoprotein(a)0.7200.7920.6720.692
Basic + apolipoprotein AI0.7250.7870.6730.689
Basic + apolipoprotein B0.7180.7860.6710.688
Basic + albumin0.7270.7890.6760.689
Basic + fibrinogen0.7230.7900.6730.697
Basic + factor VII0.7240.7860.6770.688
Basic + WBC0.7370.7860.6720.691
Basic + factor VIII0.7470.7860.6960.688
Basic + von Willebrand factor0.7360.7860.6930.689
Basic + multiple risk factors0.7710.7960.7400.711
  • Participants missing data on any of the risk factors or markers shown were excluded to ensure comparability of AUCs.

  • * Basic model includes age, race, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (SBP) use of antihypertensive medication, and smoking status. Other risk factors were either added (+) or removed (−) one at a time from this model.

  • Multiple risk factors include BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, lipoprotein(a), albumin, creatinine, WBC, fibrinogen, factor VIII, sport activity, residual FEV1, Keys score, and pack-years smoking.