Table 2—

Areas under the ROC curve for various tests used to predict diabetes incidence

Diabetes incidence after 5–6 years
Diabetes incidence after 10 years
ROC area (95% CI)P value compared to:
ROC area (95% CI)P value compared to:
Model 1Model 4Model 1Model 4
All ages
 Model 1: clinical model (as published)*0.755 (0.700–0.810)0.790 (0.735–0.845)
 Model 2: clinical model (study data)0.789 (0.731–0.846)0.1570.0220.807 (0.752–0.861)0.1810.020
 Model 3: 2-h glucose0.829 (0.782–0.876)0.0270.0060.820 (0.769–0.871)0.3870.125
 Model 4: FPG0.716 (0.647–0.785)0.1130.765 (0.710–0.821)0.201
Age ≤55 years
 Model 1: clinical model (as published)*0.896 (0.848–0.945)0.807 (0.713–0.901)
 Model 2: clinical model (study data)0.897 (0.848–0.946)0.9470.0180.827 (0.743–0.911)0.2770.033
 Model 3: 2-h glucose0.851 (0.779–0.923)0.3410.3240.829 (0.741–0.917)0.7040.180
 Model 4: FPG0.776 (0.658–0.893)0.0080.740 (0.644–0.836)0.097
Age >55 years
 Model 1: clinical model (as published)*0.599 (0.502–0.696)0.729 (0.645–0.812)
 Model 2: clinical model (study data)0.772 (0.687–0.858)0.0020.0100.804 (0.736–0.872)0.0200.019
 Model 3: 2-h glucose0.792 (0.723–0.861)<0.0010.0040.793 (0.724–0.863)0.2240.245
 Model 4: FPG0.627 (0.532–0.723)0.4670.737 (0.661–0.812)0.796
  • *

    * Model 1 uses published coefficients for age, sex, ethnicity, FPG, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, BMI, and family history of diabetes;

  • Model 2 is the same as model 1 except coefficients are calculated using study data.