Table 3—

Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios for a clinical model, 2-h glucose, and FPG as tests for predicting diabetes incidence at 5–6 and 10 years

Test (cutoff)Diabetes incidence after 5–6 years
Diabetes incidence after 10 years
Diabetes/total (n)Sensitivity %Specificity %LR+LR−Diabetes/total (n)Sensitivity %Specificity %LR+LR−
All ages50/46574/412
 Clinical model (≥0.40)*17/7834.085.32.310.7730/6240.590.54.280.66
 Clinical model (≥0.26)*30/14160.073.32.240.5548/12164.978.43.000.45
 Clinical model (=IGT prevalence)*36/17872.065.82.100.4354/15773.069.52.390.39
 2-h glucose (≥7.8 mmol/l)45/17890.068.02.810.1559/15779.771.02.750.29
 FPG (≥6.1 mmol/l)7/3014.094.52.530.9118/2824.397.08.220.78
 FPG (≥5.6 mmol/l)§27/12554.076.42.290.6039/10352.781.12.780.58
Age ≤55 years16/24023/217
 Clinical model (≥0.40)*6/1737.595.17.640.665/1421.795.44.670.82
 Clinical model (≥0.26)*10/3662.588.45.380.4213/3256.590.25.770.48
 Clinical model (=IGT prevalence)*15/7093.875.53.820.0816/6569.674.72.750.41
 2-h glucose (≥7.8 mmol/l)14/7087.575.03.500.1718/6578.375.83.230.29
 FPG (≥6.1 mmol/l)1/56.398.23.500.953/413.099.525.30.87
 FPG (≥5.6 mmol/l)§8/3750.087.13.860.577/3230.487.12.360.80
Age >55 years34/22551/195
 Clinical model (≥0.40)*11/6132.473.81.240.9225/4849.084.03.070.61
 Clinical model (≥0.26)*20/10558.855.51.320.7435/8968.662.51.830.50
 Clinical model (=IGT prevalence)*20/10858.853.91.280.7636/9270.661.11.820.48
 2-h glucose (≥7.8 mmol/l)31/10891.259.72.260.1541/9280.464.62.270.30
 FPG (≥6.1 mmol/l)6/2517.790.11.770.9115/2429.493.84.710.75
 FPG (≥5.6 mmol/l)§19/8855.963.91.550.6932/7162.772.92.320.51
  • Data for diabetes/total are number of subjects above the cutoff who developed type 2 diabetes/total number of subjects with value above the cutoff.

  • *

    * Probability of diabetes from a published clinical model using age, sex, ethnicity, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, BMI, and family history of diabetes. Probability cutoffs where the prevalence = IGT prevalence are ≥0.2011 (5 years, all ages), ≥0.1917 (10 years, all ages), ≥0.1265 (5 years, age ≤55 years), ≥0.1340 (10 years, age ≤55 years), ≥0.2587 (5 years, age >55 years), and ≥0.2563 (10 years, age >55 years);

  • cutoff corresponds to IGT (2-h glucose ≥140 mg/dl);

  • cutoff corresponds to IFG (FPG ≥110 mg/dl);

  • §

    § FPG ≥100 mg/dl.