Table 2—

Baseline characteristics and predictors (OR with 95% CI) of the incidence of diabetes during a 15-year follow-up period

CharacteristicIncident diabetes
Univariate age-adjusted P valueMultivariate logistic regression
NoYesOR (95% CI)P
n6,318281
Sleep disturbances
    None (%)88.780.1<0.001Reference
    Difficulty falling asleep or regular use of hypnotics (%)9.115.30.0051.52 (1.05–2.20)0.025
    Both types of sleep disturbance (%)2.34.60.0341.78 (0.96–3.32)*0.070
Age (years)44.5 ± 4.145.9 ± 3.3<0.0011.11 (1.07–1.17)<0.001
Systolic blood pressure (mmHg)125.5 ± 13.7131.8 ± 16.7<0.0011.06 (0.94–1.20)0.317
Diastolic blood pressure (mmHg)84.9 ± 9.289.6 ± 10.8<0.001
Use of antihypertensive medication (%)2.98.2<0.0011.58 (0.95–2.61)0.077
Fasting whole blood glucose (mmol/l)4.8 ± 0.55.1 ± 0.5<0.0011.72 (1.49–1.99)<0.001
Heart rate (bpm)69.2 ± 10.372.1 ± 11.4<0.0011.13 (0.99–1.30)0.068
BMI (kg/m2)24.4 ± 3.026.9 ± 3.5<0.0011.21 (1.17–1.26)<0.001
Change in BMI from baseline (kg/m2)1.82 ± 1.881.48 ± 2.600.0150.99 (0.93–1.05)0.986
Follow-up time (years)15.2 ± 2.414.8 ± 2.40.5611.03 (0.96–1.09)0.433
Diabetes heredity (%)11.523.5<0.0012.05 (1.50–2.80)<0.001
Current smoker (%)41.052.0<0.0011.87 (1.44–2.42)<0.001
Use smokeless tobacco (%)2.72.80.266
Low physical activity (%)49.455.50.1260.97 (0.75–1.25)0.801
Social class
    Nonmanual worker (%)43.632.7<0.001Reference
    Manual worker (%)52.658.40.0541.37 (1.04–1.80)0.025
    Other classifications (%)3.88.9<0.0012.63 (1.58–4.37)<0.001
  • Data are means ± SD or proportions unless otherwise indicated. Results are from univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of predictors. Fasting blood glucose was log transformed in the multivariate analysis due to its skewed distribution. ORs are given for increase per unit. Diastolic blood pressure and use of smokeless tobacco were not included in the multivariate model.

  • *

    * P for trend 0.007;

  • OR for systolic blood pressure and log fasting blood glucose are given per SD increase, e.g., 13.7 mmHg and 0.107 mmol/l, respectively;

  • OR for heart rate is given per increase of 10 beats/min.