Table 4—

Association of weight change and physical activity change with incident metabolic syndrome

TotalMen
Women
BlackWhiteBlackWhite
Model 1*
    Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb)1.24 (1.21–1.27)1.34 (1.27–1.42)1.39 (1.31–1.47)1.11 (1.05–1.16)1.26 (1.20–1.31)
Model 2
    Physical activity over time
        Regular vs. no activity0.40 (0.28–0.57)0.47 (0.25–0.88)0.45 (0.27–0.75)0.22 (0.03–1.60)0.19 (0.06–0.59)
        Moderate vs. no activity0.82 (0.69–0.97)0.82 (0.55–1.24)0.76 (0.54–1.08)0.96 (0.71–1.31)0.75 (0.52–1.08)
Model 3§
    Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb)1.23 (1.20–1.27)1.35 (1.27–1.42)1.38 (1.30–1.46)1.10 (1.05–1.16)1.24 (1.19–1.30)
    Physical activity over time
        Regular vs. no activity0.49 (0.34–0.70)0.50 (0.26–0.96)0.61 (0.36–1.04)0.28 (0.04–2.03)0.22 (0.05–0.91)
        Moderate vs. no activity0.89 (0.74–1.07)0.72 (0.46–1.12)0.82 (0.57–1.18)1.03 (0.75–1.42)0.90 (0.62–1.32)
Model 4
    Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb)1.17 (1.14–1.20)1.26 (1.17–1.35)1.26 (1.18–1.35)1.10 (1.05–1.15)1.17 (1.11–1.24)
    Physical activity over time
        Regular vs. no activity0.65 (0.43–0.98)0.76 (0.35–1.66)0.74 (0.39–1.41)0.50 (0.07–3.80)0.38 (0.08–1.76)
        Moderate vs. no activity0.93 (0.76–1.14)0.94 (0.56–1.59)0.85 (0.56–1.30)0.93 (0.64–1.35)1.14 (0.70–1.87)
  • Data are RR (95% CI).

  • *

    * Model 1: age, race, sex, and weight gain.

  • Model 2: age, race, sex, and physical activity over time.

  • Regular physical activity, physical activity score above the median (364) at all four examinations; moderately active, activity fluctuated around the median; low activity, physical activity score below the median at all four examinations.

  • §

    § Model 3: age, race, sex, weight gain, and physical activity over time.

  • Model 4: Model 3 plus education, baseline BMI, baseline physical activity, smoking status, drinking status, crude fiber (quintiles), total dietary fat intake (quintiles), and carbohydrate intake (quintiles).