Table 1—

Diagnostic characteristics in the testing sample of rules predicting risk of incident diabetes in the ARIC study

%+SensitivitySpecificityPositive predictive valueNegative predictive value
Models and rules
    Clinical information onlyAUC = 0.71 (0.69–0.73)
    Pr(DM)
        ≥0.232040 (37–44)84 (83–85)32 (29–36)88 (87–89)
        ≥0.193054 (51–58)75 (74–75)29 (27–32)90 (88–91)
        ≥0.164067 (64–71)65 (64–66)27 (25–30)91 (90–92)
        ≥0.145077 (74–80)55 (54–56)25 (23–27)93 (91–94)
    Fasting glucose only (mmol/l)AUC = 0.74 (0.71–0.76)
    Pr(DM)
        ≥0.24 (≥5.88)2050 (46–53)84 (83–86)38 (35–42)90 (88–91)
        ≥0.19 (≥5.72)3060 (57–64)76 (74–76)32 (29–35)91 (90–92)
        ≥0.15 (≥5.55)4070 (66–73)63 (62–66)27 (25–29)92 (90–93)
        ≥0.13 (≥5.44)5077 (74–80)54 (52–55)24 (22–26)92 (91–94)
    Clinical + glucoseAUC = 0.78 (0.76–0.80)
    Pr(DM)
        ≥0.262051 (47–54)86 (85–87)41 (37–45)90 (89–91)
        ≥0.183065 (61–68)77 (76–77)35 (31–37)92 (91–93)
        ≥0.144075 (72–78)67 (66–67)30 (28–32)93 (92–94)
        ≥0.115083 (80–85)56 (56–57)27 (24–28)94 (93–95)
    Clinical + glucose + lipidsAUC = 0.80 (0.78–0.82)
    Pr(DM)
        ≥0.262052 (49–56)86 (85–87)42 (39–46)90 (89–91)
        ≥0.183067 (64–70)77 (76–78)36 (33–39)92 (91–93)
        ≥0.144077 (73–80)67 (66–68)31 (29–33)94 (93–95)
        ≥0.105085 (81–88)57 (56–57)27 (25–29)95 (94–96)
  • Data in parentheses are 95% CIs. %+, percentage of sample identified as screen positive by the detection rule; Pr(DM), probability of developing diabetes, derived from the prediction model, used as the high-risk cut point. The following are parameter estimates for the models estimating the probability of developing diabetes over the 9-year follow-up period:

    Pr(DM) = 1/(1 + e−x), where x =

  • Clinical variables only model: −7.3359 + 0.0271 × age (years) + 0.2295 × black + 0.5463 × parental history of diabetes + 0.0161 × systolic blood pressure (mmHg) + 0.0412 × waist (cm) − 0.0115 × height (cm).

  • Fasting glucose only: −11.7303 + 1.7996 × fasting glucose (mmol/l).

  • Note: When using traditional units, the coefficient for fasting glucose (mg/dl) is 0.0999.

  • Clinical variables plus fasting glucose: −12.2555 + 0.0168 × age (years) + 0.2631 × black + 0.5088 × parental history of diabetes + 1.6445 × fasting glucose (mmol/l) + 0.0120 × systolic blood pressure (mmHg) + 0.0328 × waist (cm) − 0.0261 × height (cm).

  • Note: When using traditional units, the coefficient for fasting glucose (mg/dl) is 0.0913.

  • Clinical variables plus fasting glucose and lipids: −9.9808 + 0.0173 × age (years) + 0.4433 × black + 0.4981 × parental history of diabetes + 1.5849 × fasting glucose (mmol/l) + 0.0111 × systolic blood pressure (mmHg) + 0.0273 × waist (cm) − 0.0326 × height (cm) − 0.4718 × HDL cholesterol (mmol/l) + 0.2420 × triglycerides (mmol/l).

  • Note: When using traditional units, the coefficient is 0.0880 for fasting glucose (mg/dl), 0.0122 for HDL cholesterol (mg/dl), and 0.00271 for triglycerides (mg/dl).

  • Black = 1 if African American, 0 if white, and parental history of diabetes = 1 if at least one parent has diabetes or 0 if not.