Table 2—

Diagnostic characteristics in the testing sample of metabolic syndrome–based rules in predicting high risk of diabetes in the ARIC study

%+SensitivitySpecificityPositive predictive valueNegative predictive value
Metabolic syndrome rules
    NCEP (IFG ≥6.1 mmol)*AUC = 0.75 (0.73–0.77)
        ≥32350 (47–55)82 (81–84)36 (33–39)90 (89–91)
        ≥24780 (77–83)59 (58–61)27 (25–29)94 (93–95)
    NCEP (IFG ≥5.6 mmol)AUC = 0.75 (0.73–0.77)
        ≥33264 (59–66)74 (74–77)32 (30–36)91 (90–92)
        ≥25687 (83–89)50 (50–53)25 (24–27)95 (94–96)
    NCEP (augmented)AUC = 0.78 (0.76–0.80)
        ≥61542 (38–46)90 (89–92)46 (42–50)89 (88–90)
        ≥52254 (50–59)84 (83–85)40 (37–43)91 (89–92)
        ≥43268 (65–72)75 (74–77)35 (32–37)93 (91–93)
        ≥34681 (78–84)61 (60–63)29 (27–31)94 (93–95)
  • Data in parentheses are 95% CIs. %+, percentage of sample identified as screen positive by the detection rule.

  • *

    * NCEP metabolic syndrome rules: 1 point each for high waist circumference (women >88 cm or 35 in, men >102 cm or 40 in), raised blood pressure (>130/85 mmHg or using antihypertensive medication), low HDL cholesterol (<40 mg/dl for men and <50 mg/dl for women), high triglycerides (>150 mg/dl), and hyperglycemia (fasting glucose ≥6.1 mmol/l or ≥5.6 mmol/l).

  • Augmented metabolic syndrome score: 1 point for each element of the metabolic syndrome present (as above), except for fasting glucose (2 points when fasting glucose ≥5.6 mmol/l, or 5 points when fasting glucose ≥6.1 mmol/l); additionally, 1 point for obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2).