Table 1—

Predictive value of the metabolic syndrome versus its components at ages 50 and 70 years for cardiovascular mortality

Age 50 years
Age 70 years
Total samplePrimary preventive sampleTotal samplePrimary preventive sample
Cox models
    Metabolic syndrome (versus not), unadjusted2.20 (1.81–2.67)2.04 (1.65–2.52)1.92 (1.34–2.73)1.28 (0.71–2.29)
    Metabolic syndrome components, adjusted for each other
        High glucose (versus not)1.16 (0.94–1.44)1.02 (0.79–1.31)1.71 (1.16–2.50)1.46 (0.67–3.20)
        High blood pressure (versus not)1.92 (1.55–2.38)1.88 (1.51–2.34)1.42 (0.76–2.65)2.01 (0.80–5.00)
        High triglycerides (versus not)1.28 (1.06–1.54)1.27 (1.05–1.54)1.43 (0.98–2.10)1.14 (0.65–2.00)
        Low HDL cholesterol (versus not)1.51 (1.22–1.89)1.42 (1.12–1.79)1.08 (0.73–1.61)0.98 (0.55–1.74)
        Obesity (versus not)1.65 (1.27–2.15)1.57 (1.17–2.10)1.53 (1.03–2.27)1.60 (0.90–2.83)
    Metabolic syndrome (versus not), adjusted for its components1.14 (0.81–1.61); LR test P = 0.46*1.26 (0.87–1.82); LR test P = 0.23*0.74 (0.37–1.49); LR test P = 0.40*0.52 (0.18–1.48); LR test P = 0.22*
Logistic regression models
    Models including only the individual metabolic syndrome componentsC 0.62 (0.59–0.65)C 0.61 (0.58–0.64)C 0.61 (0.54–0.67)C 0.56 (0.51–0.62)
    Models including individual components plus metabolic syndrome variableC 0.62 (0.59–0.65); P = 0.79C 0.61 (0.58–0.64); P = 0.94C 0.62 (0.58–0.66); P = 0.66C 0.59 (0.50–0.67); P = 0.58
  • Data are Cox proportional hazard ratios (95% CI) and C-statistic (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve).

  • *

    * Likelihood ratio (LR) test P values comparing models including only the individual metabolic syndrome components to models also including the metabolic syndrome variable.

  • P values for comparisons of C-statistics for models including only the individual metabolic syndrome components to models also including the metabolic syndrome variable.