Table 1—

Significant baseline predictors of heart failure risk by multivariate analysis

HR95% CIP
Creatinine ≥130 μmol/l2.701.796–4.061<0.0001
Diuretic use2.101.620–2.732<0.0001
LDL cholesterol >4 mmol/l (vs. <3 mmol/l)1.741.245–2.4420.0012
Prior MI1.701.317–2.205<0.0001
Duration ≥10 years (vs. <5 years)1.531.107–2.1150.0100
Pioglitazone1.531.183–1.9790.0012
A1C ≥7.5%1.431.078–1.8950.0131
LDL cholesterol 3–4 mmol/l (vs. <3 mmol/l)1.170.878–1.5690.2805
Age (years)1.071.044–1.087<0.0001
BMI (kg/m2)1.031.007–1.0610.0145
Duration 5–10 years (vs. <5 years)0.800.530–1.2010.2786
  • n = 5,092. Baseline characteristics that were not significant: sex, stroke ≥6 months before entry into the study (yes/no), percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass graft ≥6 months before entry into the study (yes/no), acute coronary syndrome ≥3 months before entry into the study (yes/no), objective evidence of coronary artery disease (yes/no), peripheral arterial obstructive disease (yes/no), baseline Micral test strip results (+ve/−ve), metformin or sulfonylureas at baseline (both, including fixed combinations, metformin alone, sulfonylureas alone, neither), insulin as part of standard therapy at baseline (yes/no), serum triglycerides (low risk <1.7 mmol/l, at risk 1.7–2.2 mmol/l, high risk >2.2 mmol/l), serum HDL cholesterol (low risk >1.2 mmol/l, at risk 1.0–1.2 mmol/l, high risk <1.0 mmol/l), combined blood pressure (low risk/high risk), the metabolic syndrome at baseline (present/absent), use of statins (yes/no), use of ACE or angiotensin receptor blocker inhibitors (yes/no), use of β-blockers (yes/no), smoking history (current/past/never), and prior photocoagulation therapy (yes/no).