Table 2—

ORs with 95% CIs for developing CVD over 7.4 years using NCEP risk factor categories or metabolic syndrome

Men
Women
SensitivityFPROR (95% CI)SensitivityFPROR (95% CI)
In all subjects (93 events in 1,088 men; 63 events in 1,471 women)
    CHD and/or CHD risk equivalents52.79.9*10.1 (6.38–15.9)49.213.26.36 (3.79–10.7)
    IDF definition64.532.13.85 (2.47–6.01)63.532.2*3.65 (2.16–6.18)
    ATPIII definition60.223.6*4.89 (3.15–7.60)57.124.5*4.11 (2.46–6.87)
    WHO definition49.422.1*3.43 (2.19–5.40)48.121.0*3.50 (2.02–6.06)
In subjects who had CHD or CHD risk equivalents (49 events in 148 men; 31 events in 217 women)
    IDF definition69.475.80.72 (0.34–1.55)87.175.32.22 (0.74–6.67)
    ATPIII definition73.568.71.26 (0.59–2.71)80.667.71.98 (0.77–5.09)
    WHO definition63.458.41.23 (0.57–2.64)72.061.71.60 (0.63–4.04)
In subjects who were free of CHD or CHD risk equivalents (44 events in 940 men; 32 events in 1,254 women)
    Multiple (two or more) risk factors plus a 10-year CHD risk of 10–20%72.718.6*11.9 (6.00–23.6)3.1§0.7*4.35 (0.53–35.4)
    10-year CHD risk of 5–20%84.1§37.6*8.77 (3.86–19.9)28.14.8*7.72 (3.42–17.4)
    IDF definition59.127.23.86 (2.08–7.17)40.625.71.98 (0.97–4.05)
    IDF definition plus age ≥45/55 years in men/women54.511.2*9.55 (5.09–17.9)25.07.0*4.40 (1.92–10.1)
    ATPIII definition45.418.6*3.64 (1.96–6.74)34.417.9*2.40 (1.14–5.05)
    ATPIII definition plus age ≥45/55 years in men/women43.27.6*9.25 (4.85–17.7)21.95.3*4.98 (2.08–12.0)
    WHO definition36.4§18.3*2.54 (1.34–4.82)27.615.1*2.15 (0.94–4.92)
    WHO definition plus age ≥45/55 years in men/women34.1§7.4*6.47 (3.30–12.7)20.74.3*5.85 (2.28–15.0)
  • The sensitivity (or FPR) of the IDF definition was compared with that of the other categories by McNemar’s test;

  • *

    * P < 0.001;

  • P < 0.05;

  • §

    § P < 0.01.