Table 1

ORs of FPG with A1C and AUROC curve for various models to predict incidence of type 2 diabetes

TotalCaseModel 1Model 2Model 3Model 4*Model 5*Model 6*
All participants
    FPG (mg/dl)
        ≤994,147118 (2.8)1.001.001.001.00
        100–1091,863207 (11.1)4.27 (3.38–5.39)3.50 (2.75–4.45)4.06 (3.20–5.14)3.28 (2.57–4.18)
        110–125794334 (42.1)24.79 (19.68–31.23)16.00 (12.55–20.40)22.52 (17.73–28.60)14.54 (11.31–18.68)
    A1C (%)
        ≤4.9 (5.3)2,12563 (3.0)1.001.001.001.00
        5.0–5.4 (5.4–5.7)3,157204 (6.5)2.26 (1.70–3.02)1.82 (1.35–2.46)2.11 (1.58–2.83)1.71 (1.26–2.31)
        5.5–5.9 (5.8–6.2)1,239255 (20.6)8.48 (6.37–11.29)4.87 (3.60–6.58)7.86 (5.86–10.54)4.50 (3.30–6.14)
        6.0–6.4 (6.3–6.7)21590 (41.9)23.57 (16.29–34.09)11.72 (7.80–17.59)22.50 (15.27–33.13)11.04 (7.23–16.87)
        ≤6.5 (6.8)6847 (69.1)73.25 (41.33–129.83)33.14 (17.23–63.75)75.58 (41.66–137.10)33.58 (16.88–66.78)
    AUROC curve of each model (95% CI)0.818 (0.800–0.837)0.771 (0.751–0.792)0.853 (0.836–0.870)0.831 (0.814–0.849)0.789 (0.770–0.809)0.859 (0.842–0.876)
        P value for referenceRef.<0.001<0.001<0.0010.072<0.001
Stratified analysis according to FPG
    Participants with FPG ≤99 mg/dl
        FPG, per 5 mg/dl1.29 (1.06–1.58)1.24 (1.02–1.51)1.27 (1.04–1.56)1.21 (0.99–1.48)
        A1C (%)
            ≤4.9 (5.3)1,56821 (1.3)1.001.001.001.00
            5.0–5.4 (5.4–5.7)1,95537 (1.9)1.42 (0.83–2.44)1.35 (0.79–2.33)1.32 (0.76–2.27)1.26 (0.73–2.17)
            5.5–5.9 (5.8–6.2)53545 (8.4)6.77 (3.99–11.47)6.43 (3.79–10.92)6.51 (3.76–11.30)6.17 (3.54–10.74)
            6.0–6.4 (6.3–6.7)7210 (13.9)11.88 (5.37–26.30)11.30 (5.09–25.08)12.21 (5.32–28.00)11.44 (4.96–26.37)
            ≤6.5 (6.8)175 (29.4)30.69 (9.93–94.89)31.89 (10.21–99.59)39.77 (12.17–129.98)41.63 (12.68–136.72)
        AUROC curve of each model (95% CI)0.581 (0.526–0.636)0.717 (0.663–0.770)0.713 (0.659–0.767)0.672 (0.621–0.722)0.740 (0.688–0.792)0.738 (0.686–0.791)
            P value for referenceRef.<0.001<0.0010.004<0.001<0.001
    Participants with FPG ≥100 mg/dl
        FPG, per 5 mg/dl2.12 (1.95–2.29)1.92 (1.77–2.09)2.11 (1.94–2.29)1.93 (1.76–2.10)
        A1C (%)
            ≤4.9 (5.3)55742 (7.5)1.001.001.001.00
            5.0–5.4 (5.4–5.7)1,202167 (13.9)1.98 (1.39–2.82)2.01 (1.39–2.90)1.85 (1.29–2.65)1.87 (1.29–2.71)
            5.5–5.9 (5.8–6.2)704210 (29.8)5.21 (3.66–7.42)4.27 (2.95–6.18)4.83 (3.36–6.93)3.94 (2.70–5.74)
            6.0–6.4 (6.3–6.7)14380 (55.9)15.57 (9.87–24.57)10.93 (6.72–17.77)14.40 (8.96–23.16)10.15 (6.12–16.83)
            ≤6.5 (6.8)5142 (82.4)57.22 (26.08–125.53)28.72 (12.58–65.54)53.29 (23.86–119.03)25.51 (10.99–59.23)
        AUROC curve of each model (95% CI)0.749 (0.724–0.773)0.738 (0.714–0.763)0.804 (0.782–0.825)0.773 (0.749–0.796)0.756 (0.732–0.780)0.814 (0.792–0.835)
            P value for referenceRef.0.970<0.001<0.0010.995<0.001
  • Data are n, n (%), or OR (95% CI) unless otherwise indicated.

  • *Model included age, BMI, smoking habit (nonsmokers, past smokers, and current smokers), regular leisure-time physical activity, daily alcohol consumption (nondrinkers, light drinkers, moderate drinkers, and heavy drinkers), walk to work (0–10, 11–20, ≥21 min), and parental history of diabetes.

  • †A1C of the National Glycohemoglobin Standardization Program is indicated in parentheses. See research design and methods for help converting A1C (%) of the Japan Diabetes Society to that of the National Glycohemoglobin Standardization Program.

  • P value compared with AUROC curve of model 1 by the Sidak method.