Table 1

Assumptions regarding model parameters

ValueReference
Diabetes-related parameters
    Interval between onset of diabetes and diagnosis (years)1015
    Average hemoglobin A1C at time of diagnosis (%)6.8015
    Treatment impact on A1C (%)−2.9015
    Rate of change in A1C, on treatment (%)0.2015
    Hazard rates
Normal to microalbuminuria0.02371
Microalbuminuria to nephropathy0.06561
Normal to peripheral neuropathy0.0294
Normal to photocoagulation0.0079
Side effect–related parameters
    Probability of weight gain while on glyburide (first 2 years) (%)10033
    Probability of weight loss while on exenatide (first 2 years) (%)10033
    Probability of hypoglycemia (%)
Glyburide36.1012
Sitagliptin6.2012
Exenatide16.0034
    Probability of nausea/other gastrointestinal side effects while taking glyburide (%)4.2019
    Probability of nausea/other gastrointestinal side effects while taking exenatide (%)57.0013
    Probability of upper respiratory infection while on sitagliptin (%)3.5019
Costs per day ($)
    Metformin, 2,000 mg1.42WSP, 35
    Glyburide, 7.5 mg0.42WSP, 35
    Sitagliptin, 100 mg6.06WSP, 35
    Exenatide, 20 μg8.37WSP, 35
    Rosiglitazone, 8 mg5.59WSP, 35
    NPH insulin, 10 units0.90WSP, 35
    Injection-related supplies0.52WSP, 35
Annual utilities following
    Blindness0.6915
    Stroke0.515
    End-stage renal disease0.6115
    Lower extremity amputation0.815
  • WSP, wholesale price.