Table 3

Predictors of incident diabetes, prediabetes, and dysglycemia in the study cohort

Progression to diabetesProgression to diabetesProgression to prediabetesProgression to dysglycemia
(NGT to DM)(IFG/IGT to DM)(NGT to IFG/IGT)(NGT to DM/IFG/IGT)
HR (95% CI)HR (95% CI)HR (95% CI)HR (95% CI)
Variables*P valueP valueP valueP value
Age (years)1.01 (1.00–1.03)1.01 (0.99–1.03)1.02 (1.00–1.03)1.02 (1.01–1.03)
P = 0.095P = 0.239P = 0.007P < 0.001
Sex (female)1.01 (0.67–1.53)1.10 (0.68–1.80)0.77 (0.52–1.13)0.88 (0.66–1.17)
P = 0.954P = 0.691P = 0.184P = 0.375
Positive family history of diabetes1.74 (1.24–2.45)1.63 (1.10–2.42)1.25 (0.91–1.72)1.49 (1.18–1.87)
P = 0.001P = 0.016P = 0.165P = 0.001
Abdominal obesity1.03 (0.99–1.08)0.99 (0.93–1.05)1.32 (0.96–1.80)1.03 (1.00–1.05)
P = 0.124P = 0.698P = 0.085P = 0.039
2-h PG (mg/dL)1.01 (1.00–1.02)1.01 (1.00–1.01)1.01 (1.00–1.02)1.01 (1.01–1.02)
P = 0.012P = 0.086P = 0.005P < 0.001
HbA1c (%)3.25 (2.24–4.72)1.61 (1.23–2.11)0.96 (0.69–1.33)1.04 (1.01–1.07)
P < 0.001P = 0.001P = 0.809P = 0.003
HOMA-IR1.04 (0.94–1.16)1.04 (0.95–1.15)0.99 (0.97–1.00)0.97 (0.90–1.05)
P = 0.447P = 0.395P = 0.041P = 0.511
High serum triglycerides1.61 (1.14–2.27)1.13 (0.75–1.71)0.84 (0.57–1.25)1.19 (0.92–1.54)
P = 0.007P = 0.561P = 0.399P = 0.178
Low HDL cholesterol1.33 (0.93–1.91)1.24 (0.84–1.83)1.35 (0.98–1.86)1.34 (1.06–1.70)
P = 0.117P = 0.286P = 0.068P = 0.016
Physical inactivity1.38 (0.90–2.11)1.43 (0.97–2.10)1.94 (1.30–2.89)1.66 (1.24–2.21)
P = 0.137P = 0.070P = 0.001P = 0.001
Smoking (yes)0.99 (0.54–1.81)1.04 (0.53–2.02)0.70 (0.37–1.32)0.82 (0.53–1.26)
P = 0.979P = 0.914P = 0.266P = 0.369
Alcohol (yes)1.94 (1.08–3.47)0.68 (0.34–1.34)0.98 (0.54–1.77)1.32 (0.88–1.99)
P = 0.026P = 0.260P = 0.934P = 0.180
  • Abdominal obesity defined as waist circumference ≥80 cm for males and ≥90 cm for females. High serum triglycerides defined as serum triglycerides ≥150 mg/dL, and low HDL cholesterol defined as HDL cholesterol <40 mg/dL for males and <50 mg/dL for females. DM, diabetes; HOMA-IR, HOMA of insulin resistance; HR, hazard ratio.

  • *All variables added simultaneously into the models;

  • †included in the model as continuous variables.