Table 3

Predictive models for 4-year cumulated incidence of diabetes: the SHS

A1C-DM*FPG-DM*FPG/A1C-DM*
UnitCoeff.POR95% CICoeff.POR95% CICoeff.POR95% CI
Intercept11.0880.0076−7.223<0.000111.3540.0049
Age (years)5−0.0330.00010.850.78–0.92−0.0330.00030.850.77–0.93−0.0290.00040.860.80–0.94
WAIST (cm)10.00.0110.01301.121.02–1.230.0170.00031.181.08–1.30
highWAIST1.00.770<0.00012.161.52–3.14
Elevated blood pressure1.00.3260.02631.391.04–1.850.2860.02931.331.03–1.72
FPG (mg/dL)10.00.028<0.00011.331.23–1.44
FPG × FPG0.000<0.00010.000<0.0001
HbA1c (%)0.5−7.408<0.00010.620<0.00011.361.23–1.53−6.480<0.0001
HbA1c × HbA1c0.794<0.00010.686<0.0001
Log(UACR) × Log(UACR)0.0210.00150.032<0.00010.0190.0047
Log(TG)0.3320.0090
hyperTG1.00.3720.00601.451.11–1.89
Sibling history of diabetes1.00.3420.01581.411.07–1.86
AROC0.75<0.00010.77<0.00010.71<0.0001
Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic11.230.1889§8.300.4048§10.360.2407§
  • The risk-factor data from the baseline exam and the incident diabetes status data from the second exam collected from participants without A1C-DM, FPG-DM, or FPG/A1C-DM at the baseline exam were used to obtain the predictive model for cumulative incident A1C-DM, FPG-DM, and FPG/A1C-DM, respectively. Variables in the models were selected according to the procedures explained in the statistical analyses section. Coeff., estimated regression coefficient.

  • *See respective definitions in Table 2.

  • †Related to the unit increment.

  • P value from testing whether AROC = 0.5.

  • §P value from testing whether Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic = 0.