Table 1

Odds ratios (95% CI), univariable analysis, for incident diabetes according to seven definitions of diabetes: the DESIR study

TreatmentFPG ≥7.0 mmol/LHbA1c ≥6.5%FPG ≥7.0 mmo/L and/or HbA1c ≥6.5%FPG ≥7.0 mmol/L and/or treatmentHbA1c ≥6.5% and/or treatmentFPG ≥7.0 mmol/L and/or HbA1c ≥6.5% and/or treatment
Women0.51 (0.34–0.77) 0.00100.38 (0.26–0.53) <0.00010.66 (0.46–0.95) 0.02420.48 (0.36–0.63) <0.00010.41 (0.30–0.56) <0.00010.62 (0.45–0.86) 0.00380.50 (0.38–0.65) <0.0001
Age (1 year)1.08 (1.05–1.10) <0.00011.03 (1.01–1.05) <0.00011.07 (1.05–1.10) <0.00011.05 (1.04–1.07) <0.00011.04 (1.02–1.06) <0.00011.07 (1.05–1.10) <0.00011.06 (1.04–1.07) <0.0001
Diabetes in family
 Men1.55 (0.89–2.68) 0.11971.02 (0.63–1.65) 0.93301.35 (0.77–2.36) 0.28751.19 (0.78–1.80) 0.41681.12 (0.73–1.74) 0.59291.54 (0.96–2.46) 0.07121.30 (0.89–1.91) 0.1745
 Women3.30 (1.72–6.32) 0.00033.38 (1.90–6.01) <0.00011.49 (0.80–2.79) 0.20872.06 (1.27–3.34) 0.00363.11 (1.86–5.20) <0.00011.76 (1.02–3.01) 0.03952.06 (1.31–3.21) 0.0016
Current smoker
 Men2.27 (1.39–3.70) 0.00091.89 (1.28–2.79) 0.00121.46 (0.89–2.42) 0.13311.70 (1.20–2.42) 0.00311.83 (1.28–2.64) 0.00091.59 (1.03–2.44) 0.03441.68 (1.21–2.35) 0.0022
 Women0.36 (0.08–1.53) 0.16741.49 (0.71–3.11) 0.28991.20 (0.55–2.58) 0.64521.45 (0.80–2.62) 0.22111.25 (0.62–2.49) 0.52921.04 (0.50–2.13) 0.91751.27 (0.72–2.25) 0.4041
Alcohol (g/day)
 01111111
 0–191.01 (0.56–1.80)1.48 (0.89–2.43)0.75 (0.44–1.26)1.04 (0.69–1.57)1.32 (0.84–2.06)0.82 (0.52–1.31)0.95 (0.65–1.39)
 20–391.28 (0.74–2.19)1.73 (1.08–2.78)0.86 (0.53–1.39)1.38 (0.95–2.00)1.63 (1.07–2.47)1.00 (0.65–1.52)1.31 (0.93–1.84)
 ≥403.16 (1.70–5.87)4.75 (2.79–8.08)2.69 (1.57–4.61)3.38 (2.17–5.28)4.01 (2.47–6.51)2.62 (1.60–4.30)3.00 (1.98–4.55)
0.0004<0.0001<0.0001<0.0001<0.0001<0.0001<0.0001
Sedentary1.65 (1.10–2.47) 0.01441.30 (0.92–1.83) 0.12652.12 (1.47–3.05) <0.00011.56 (1.17–2.07) 0.00241.45 (1.06–1.97) 0.01712.07 (1.50–2.86) <0.00011.67 (1.28–2.17) 0.0002
Waist (1 cm)1.13 (1.10–1.16) <0.00011.09 (1.07–1.11) <0.00011.09 (1.07–1.12) <0.00011.09 (1.08–1.11) <0.00011.10 (1.08–1.12) <0.00011.10 (1.08–1.12) <0.00011.10 (1.08–1.11) <0.0001
BMI (1 kg/m2)1.32 (1.26–1.38) <0.00011.23 (1.18–1.28) <0.00011.25 (1.20–1.31) <0.00011.23 (1.19–1.27) <0.00011.25 (1.20–1.30) <0.00011.28 (1.22–1.33) <0.00011.25 (1.21–1.29) <0.0001
Hypertension6.80 (4.29–10.76) <0.00012.94 (2.14–4.03) <0.00013.48 (2.40–5.03) <0.00012.99 (2.28–3.94) <0.00013.27 (2.44–4.38) <0.00014.48 (3.19–6.28) <0.00013.37 (2.60–4.37) <0.0001
Lipid treatment3.14 (1.91–5.14) <0.00011.98 (1.24–3.16) 0.00403.18 (2.00–5.06) <0.00012.19 (1.47–3.25) 0.00012.19 (1.45–3.31) 0.00023.01 (1.98–4.57) <0.00012.2 (1.56–3.25) <0.0001
AROC curve (95% CIs) for the DESIR diabetes risk score
 DESIR score*0.86 (0.83–0.89)0.74 (0.70–0.78)0.77 (0.72–0.82)0.75 (0.71–0.78)0.76 (0.72–0.80)0.80 (0.76–0.83)0.76 (0.73–0.80)
  • Data are expressed as OR (95% CI) P. N, case patients with incident diabetes: treatment, 108/3,872; FPG ≥7.0 mmol/L, 168/3,790; HbA1c ≥6.5%, 126/3,789; FPG ≥7.0 mmol/L and/or HbA1c ≥6.5%, 228/3,800; FPG ≥7.0 mmol/L and/or treatment, 203/3,825; HbA1c ≥6.5% and/or treatment, 165/3,828; and FPG ≥7.0 mmol/L and/or HbA1c ≥6.5% and/or treatment, 264/3,836.

  • *Reference 2.