Table 1

Overview of key statistics and results of projection scenarios

2015Projection for 2030
Baseline scenarioPast trends scenarioTarget scenario
Included countries180180180180
Population (billion)7.258.398.398.39
Global GDP (trillion $)a73.53115.30115.30115.30
Prevalence, age-group 20–79 years (%)8.8 (8.4–9.5)10.0 (9.5–10.7)11.8 (11.2–12.7)9.8 (9.4–10.5)
Deaths in 1,000s, age-group 20–65 years3,148 (3,013–3,327)4,181 (4,001–4,412)4,566 (4,364–4,822)2,787 (2,668–2,941)
Total costs (trillion $)a1.32 (1.28–1.37)2.25 (2.18–2.34)2.48 (2.41–2.58)2.12 (2.06–2.20)
Direct costs (trillion $)a0.86 (0.83–0.89)1.51 (1.47–1.57)1.70 (1.65–1.77)1.50 (1.46–1.56)
Indirect costs (trillion $)a0.46 (0.45–0.48)0.73 (0.71–0.77)0.78 (0.75–0.82)0.61 (0.60–0.65)
 Mortality (%)b45.748.146.438.3
 Dropout (%)b48.345.847.154.5
 Absenteeism (%)b3.93.94.14.6
 Presenteeism (%)b2.12.32.42.7
Share indirect costs (%)c35.032.731.329.0
Total costs/global GDP (%)1.8 (1.7–1.9)1.9 (1.9–2.0)2.2 (2.1–2.2)1.8 (1.8–1.9)
Mean (total costs/GDP) (%)1.4 (1.4–1.4)1.6 (1.6–1.7)1.9 (1.8–1.9)1.5 (1.5–1.5)
 High-income countries only1.2 (1.2–1.3)1.3 (1.3–1.4)1.4 (1.4–1.5)1.3 (1.3–1.3)
 Middle-income countries only1.7 (1.6–1.7)2.0 (1.9–2.1)2.3 (2.3–2.4)1.8 (1.8–1.9)
 Low-income countries only0.7 (0.6–0.8)0.8 (0.8–1.0)1.0 (0.9–1.1)0.7 (0.7–0.8)
  • Data are presented as n unless indicated otherwise. Numbers in parentheses are 95% CI.

  • aAbsolute costs and GDP are expressed in terms of constant 2015 U.S. dollars.

  • bThe fraction of the respective indirect cost component in total indirect costs. 95% CI not shown.

  • cThe fraction of total costs allotted to indirect costs. 95% CI not shown.