Table 3

AUC and J of each prediction model, together with ∆AUC and ∆J introduced by the newly added risk factor in each prediction model factor to predict any IA, IAA-first, or GADA-first at age of 6 years or progression to T1D at 3 years from the appearance of multiple autoantibodies

# of risk factors in the modelAt age of 6 yearsProgression to T1D at year 3
Any IAIAA-firstGADA-first
Newly added risk factorAUC∆AUCJJNewly added risk factorAUC∆AUCJJNewly added risk factorAUC∆AUCJJNewly added risk factorAUC∆AUCJJ
1Family history0.5520.100Family history0.5600.115rs3184504 (SH2B3)0.5870.129Age at multiple IAs0.6680.321
2HLA genotype0.6050.0540.1610.062HLA genotype0.6390.0800.1910.076rs2476601 (PTPN22)0.6060.0190.1830.054Type of first autoantibody0.6720.0040.310−0.011
3rs2476601 (PTPN22)0.6270.0220.1890.028rs2476601 (PTPN22)0.6680.0290.2310.040HLA genotype0.6310.0250.183−0.001rs15344220.6900.0180.3140.004
4rs3184504 (SH2B3)0.6460.0180.2070.018rs1004446 (INS)0.6790.0110.2760.045Family history0.6550.0240.2360.053Sex0.7040.0140.3640.050
5rs1004446 (INS)0.6560.0100.2310.024rs3184504 (SH2B3)0.6940.0150.3160.040Weight z score at 12 months0.6740.0180.2530.017rs2327832 (TNFAIP3)0.702−0.0020.346−0.018
6Weight z score at 12 months0.6650.0090.2500.018Sex0.6980.0040.313−0.002rs12708716 (CLEC16A)0.6770.0030.2800.027rs1004446 (INS)0.7070.0050.3550.009
7rs2292239 (ERBB3)0.6710.0060.2500.001Weight z score at 12 months0.7020.0040.3220.009rs2292239 (ERBB3)0.6860.0090.2870.007rs105170860.706−0.0020.352−0.003
8rs12708716 (CLEC16A)0.6730.0020.2520.002rs4948088 (COBL)0.7060.0040.3260.004
9Sex0.6750.0020.250−0.002Probiotics introduction age0.7070.0020.316−0.010
10rs4948088 (COBL)0.6750.0000.248−0.002
11Probiotics introduction age0.6760.0020.2510.003
12First infant formula type during the first 3 months of life0.6780.0020.2560.006