Table 3

Incidence and hazard ratios of CVD, cancer, and all-cause mortality among participants without treated diabetes at baseline

Person-years, nEvents, nIncidence per 1,000 person-years (95% CI)Model 1aModel 2bModel 3c
Hazard ratio (95% CI)P valueHazard ratio (95% CI)P valueHazard ratio (95% CI)P value
CVD incidence
 FPG, mg/dL
  <100248,4631,5686.31 (6.00–6.63)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
  100–125156,3441,0866.94 (6.54–7.37)0.98 (0.90–1.05)0.530.90 (0.83–0.97)0.0090.87 (0.79–0.94)<0.001
  ≥12632,56136011.06 (9.94–12.26)1.42 (1.27–1.59)<0.0011.18 (1.05–1.33)0.0070.89 (0.75–1.06)0.19
 2h-PG, mg/dL
  <140282,9421,5985.65 (5.37–5.93)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
  140–199107,0418758.17 (7.64–8.73)1.18 (1.08–1.28)0.0011.12 (1.03–1.22)0.0091.14 (1.05–1.25)0.002
  ≥20047,38454111.42 (10.48–12.42)1.49 (1.35–1.64)<0.0011.31 (1.18–1.45)<0.0011.30 (1.14–1.49)<0.001
 HbA1c, %
  <5.7174,2451,0405.97 (5.61–6.34)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
  5.7–6.4218,5961,4966.84 (6.50–7.20)0.92 (0.85–1.00)0.050.93 (0.86–1.01)0.090.93 (0.85–1.01)0.09
  ≥6.544,52747810.74 (9.79–11.74)1.28 (1.15–1.43)<0.0011.20 (1.07–1.34)0.0021.07 (0.92–1.24)0.39
Cancer incidence
 FPG, mg/dL
  <100258,9038953.45 (3.23–3.69)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
  100–125165,5915803.50 (3.22–3.80)0.93 (0.84–1.03)0.170.96 (0.86–1.06)0.400.92 (0.82–1.03)0.13
  ≥12635,0451494.25 (3.60–4.99)1.05 (0.88–1.25)0.601.10 (0.92–1.32)0.290.82 (0.64–1.05)0.16
 2h-PG, mg/dL
  <140293,7229193.13 (2.93–3.34)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
  140–199114,1184303.77 (3.42–4.14)1.04 (0.93–1.17)0.511.08 (0.96–1.21)0.211.11 (0.99–1.26)0.08
  ≥20051,6992755.32 (4.71–5.99)1.35 (1.18–1.54)<0.0011.44 (1.25–1.67)<0.0011.62 (1.36–1.93)<0.001
 HbA1c, %
  <5.7180,0946063.36 (3.10–3.64)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
  5.7–6.4230,6548063.49 (3.26–3.74)0.89 (0.80–0.99)0.030.92 (0.82–1.03)0.130.90 (0.81–1.01)0.08
  ≥6.548,7912124.35 (3.78–4.97)1.01 (0.86–1.18)0.941.08 (0.92–1.28)0.350.88 (0.72–1.09)0.25
All-cause mortality
 FPG, mg/dL
  <100326,8931,2683.88 (3.67–4.10)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
  100–125207,8358554.11 (3.84–4.40)0.91 (0.83–0.99)0.030.95 (0.87–1.04)0.260.90 (0.82–0.99)0.04
  ≥12644,8472866.38 (5.66–7.16)1.25 (1.10–1.42)0.0011.37 (1.20–1.57)<0.0010.99 (0.83–1.20)0.98
 2h-PG, mg/dL
  <140368,4321,2433.37 (3.19–3.57)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
  140–199144,7266814.71 (4.36–5.07)1.05 (0.95–1.15)0.331.13 (1.02–1.24)0.021.15 (1.04–1.27)0.005
  ≥20066,4164857.30 (6.67–7.98)1.41 (1.27–1.57)<0.0011.57 (1.41–1.76)<0.0011.58 (1.38–1.81)<0.001
 HbA1c, %
  <5.7226,0048363.70 (3.45–3.96)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
  5.7–6.4290,7891,1974.11 (3.89–4.36)0.87 (0.80–0.96)0.0030.99 (0.90–1.08)0.780.97 (0.88–1.06)0.47
  ≥6.562,7823765.99 (5.40–6.63)1.08 (0.95–1.22)0.231.33 (1.17–1.52)<0.0011.06 (0.89–1.26)0.47
  • aModel 1 was adjusted for age and sex.

  • bModel 2 included model 1 variables plus BMI, family history of diabetes, cigarette smoking (current, former, and never smoker), alcohol consumption (current, former, and never), high school or higher education, moderate and vigorous physical activity, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and triglycerides.

  • cModel 3 included model 2 variables plus baseline 2h-PG and HbA1c (as spline terms) for the FPG category, model 2 variables plus baseline FPG and HbA1c (as spline terms) for the 2h-PG category, and model 2 variables plus baseline FPG and 2h-PG (as spline terms) for the HbA1c category.