Table 2

Cumulative incidence and risk ratio of diabetes according to glucose tolerance status over a mean follow-up of 3.8 years among study participants without diagnosed diabetes and without undiagnosed diabetes at baseline

VariableGlucose toleranceStudy participants, n (%)Incident diabetesAge- and sex-adjusted modelMultivariable-adjusted modela
FPG, mg/dL2h-PG, mg/dLHbA1c, % (mmol/mol)Participants, nCumulative incidence, %Risk ratio (95% CI)P valueRisk ratio (95% CI)P value
Normal glucose tolerance<100<140<5.7 (39)30,291 (28.4)8802.91.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
Isolated impaired fasting glucose100–125<140<5.7 (39)9,138 (8.6)4545.01.66 (1.49–1.86)<0.0011.60 (1.43–1.79)<0.001
Isolated impaired glucose tolerance<100140–199<5.7 (39)4,970 (4.7)4378.82.93 (2.62–3.27)<0.0012.72 (2.43–3.04)<0.001
Isolated elevated HbA1c<100<1405.7–6.4 (39–47)25,380 (23.8)1,1844.71.56 (1.43–1.70)<0.0011.49 (1.36–1.62)<0.001
Combined impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance100–125140–199<5.7 (39)3,983 (3.7)50712.74.21 (3.79–4.68)<0.0013.71 (3.33–4.13)<0.001
Combined impaired fasting glucose and elevated HbA1c100–125<1405.7–6.4 (39–47)14,433 (13.6)1,3209.23.00 (2.76–3.26)<0.0012.68 (2.46–2.92)<0.001
Combined impaired glucose tolerance and elevated HbA1c<100140–1995.7–6.4 (39–47)7,727 (7.3)1,03013.34.37 (4.00–4.77)<0.0013.87 (3.53–4.23)<0.001
Combined impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, and elevated HbA1c100–125140–1995.7–6.4 (39–47)10,571 (9.9)2,25121.36.91 (6.40–7.46)<0.0015.84 (5.40–6.32)<0.001
  • Diabetes was defined as FPG ≥126 mg/dL (7.0 mmol/L), 2h-PG ≥200 mg/dL (11.1 mmol/L), HbA1c ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol), or self-report of a physician diagnosis of diabetes and use of antidiabetes medications at the follow-up visits.

  • aAdjusted for age, sex, BMI, family history of diabetes, smoking, drinking, education status, physical activity, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and triglycerides.