Table 4

Improvement in predicting diabetes, CVD, cancer, and all-cause mortality by adding FPG, 2h-PG, and HbA1c to conventional risk factorsa

Diabetes incidencecCVD incidencedCancer incidencedAll-cause mortalityd
∆ C statistic (95% CI)IDI, % (95% CI)NRI, % (95% CI)∆ C statistic (95% CI)IDI, % (95% CI)NRI, % (95% CI)∆ C statistic (95% CI)IDI, % (95% CI)NRI, % (95% CI)∆ C statistic (95% CI)IDI, % (95% CI)NRI, % (95% CI)
Adding a single glycemic measureb
 FPG0.043 (0.038–0.048)2.208 (2.086–2.331)37.694 (35.420–39.967)0.001 (0.0005–0.002)0.034 (0.015–0.054)1.250 (−2.289 to 4.789)0.000 (−0.001 to 0.002)0.006 (0.0001–0.011)1.778 (−2.983 to 6.593)0.001 (0.0002–0.002)0.051 (0.020–0.081)−0.892 (−4.951 to 3.168)
 2h-PG0.064 (0.058–0.070)3.442 (3.288–3.596)51.415 (49.171–53.658)0.001 (0.0003–0.002)0.044 (0.016–0.072)20.322 (16.660–23.985)0.002 (−0.001 to 0.004)0.039 (0.022–0.055)8.242 (3.780–12.703)0.003 (0.002–0.005)0.112 (0.056–0.169)17.859 (13.885–21.833)
 HbA1c0.034 (0.029–0.038)1.527 (1.439–1.615)34.959 (32.709–37.209)0.001 (0.0003–0.002)0.024 (0.006–0.042)1.300 (−2.389 to 4.988)0.001 (−0.001 to 0.002)0.007 (0.001–0.014)1.322 (−3.640 to 6.285)0.001 (0.0002–0.002)0.034 (0.005–0.062)5.571 (1.963–9.180)
Adding two glycemic measuresb
 FPG and 2h-PG0.080 (0.074–0.086)4.560 (4.373–4.746)56.856 (54.633–59.080)0.003 (0.002–0.005)0.058 (0.030–0.085)−6.717 (−10.398 to 3.035)0.003 (−0.001 to 0.006)0.057 (0.036–0.079)−1.090 (−6.031 to 3.850)0.004 (0.002–0.005)0.151 (0.093–0.211)15.308 (11.337–19.279)
 FPG and HbA1c0.058 (0.052–0.063)3.131 (2.983–3.278)46.620 (44.376–48.863)0.002 (0.001–0.004)0.047 (0.023–0.071)2.620 (−0.968 to 6.208)0.001 (−0.001 to 0.003)0.012 (0.004–0.020)3.853 (−1.037 to 8.744)0.001 (0.0004–0.003)0.065 (0.030–0.101)2.813 (−1.230 to 6.854)
 2h-PG and HbA1c0.078 (0.072–0.083)4.434 (4.254–4.614)55.761 (53.538–57.985)0.002 (0.001–0.003)0.044 (0.019–0.069)−5.87 (−9.532, 2.213)0.003 (−0.001 to 0.006)0.049 (0.030–0.068)3.10 (−1.842 to 8.047)0.004 (0.002–0.005)0.118 (0.061–0.175)14.945 (10.981–18.908)
Adding all three glycemic measuresb (FPG, 2h-PG, and HbA1c)0.088 (0.082–0.094)5.247 (5.043–5.450)59.472 (57.260–61.683)0.004 (0.002–0.005)0.069 (0.039–0.098)8.456 (4.7787–12.1339)0.004 (−0.00002 to 0.007)0.063 (0.041–0.0847)8.223 (3.263–13.183)0.004 (0.002–0.006)0.155 (0.095–0.214)11.594 (7.557–15.632)
  • aConventional risk factors included age, sex, BMI, family history of diabetes, smoking, drinking, high school or higher education, moderate or vigorous physical activity, systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides.

  • bContinuous glycemic measures were included in the models of subsequent diabetes, and categorized glycemic measures—including FPG (<100, 100–125, and ≥126 mg/dL), 2h-PG (<140, 140–199, and ≥200 mg/dL), and HbA1c (<5.7, 5.7–6.4, and ≥6.5%)—were added in the models of subsequent CVD, subsequent cancer, and all-cause mortality.

  • cExcludes participants with diabetes at baseline.

  • dExcludes participants receiving antidiabetes treatment (oral hypoglycemic agents or insulin) at baseline.