Table 3

Independent predictors of late relapse of diabetes after bariatric surgery in multivariable analyses

PredictorsMain model*Second model*
OR95% CIPOR95% CIP
Preoperative number of diabetes medications2.04(1.54, 2.71)<0.0012.13(1.58, 2.87)<0.001
Preoperative duration of diabetes (years)1.08(1.02, 1.14)0.0051.10(1.03, 1.16)0.002
Type of surgery (SG vs. RYGB)2.21(1.22, 4.01)0.009
Weight loss at 1 year (%)0.92(0.89, 0.95)<0.001
Late weight regain#3.69(2.18, 6.24)<0.001
Main model*Second model*
Multiple logistic regression equation^L = −2.4917 + (0.0789 × preoperative duration of diabetes) + (0.714 × preoperative number of diabetes medications) + (0.7929 × [1, for SG, or 0, for RYGB])L = −0.729 + (0.0919 × preoperative duration of diabetes) + (0.7565 × preoperative number of diabetes medications) − (0.0877 × short-term weight loss) + (1.3059 × [1, for late weight regain, or 0, for no weight regain])
  • * Main model to be used before surgery to predict late diabetes relapse based on preoperative characteristics; second model to be used 1 year after bariatric surgery to predict late relapse based on preoperative characteristics and weight changes.

  • # Categorical variable defined as >5% weight regain from the weight recorded 1 year after bariatric surgery.

  • ^ Estimated probability of late relapse of diabetes after initial remission for a given patient (100%) = EXP [L]/(1 + EXP [L]). The notation EXP is equivalent to ex, where “e” is the base of the ln (2.718).